* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP932025 08/30/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 36 43 52 59 66 70 71 71 72 74 75 76 74 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 36 43 52 59 66 70 71 71 72 74 75 76 74 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 33 39 45 50 55 60 63 65 67 70 73 73 71 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 3 3 2 3 6 2 8 4 6 12 7 7 6 8 5 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -3 -4 -7 -4 -7 -4 -4 -3 -3 -5 -7 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 59 73 59 33 57 117 107 160 92 74 66 71 62 61 38 2 327 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.5 27.7 27.4 26.8 27.4 27.3 26.6 27.0 26.7 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 147 148 145 143 140 137 137 138 141 138 131 137 137 130 134 131 130 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 67 65 65 65 64 66 63 60 59 58 57 56 50 49 50 48 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 8 9 11 12 14 15 15 15 15 17 18 18 17 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -4 6 7 16 24 27 40 43 40 29 27 12 10 26 28 27 200 MB DIV -27 -8 0 5 20 41 31 54 58 43 5 35 16 0 2 12 0 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 -1 -2 -1 -2 0 0 0 -1 2 LAND (KM) 1453 1513 1567 1617 1668 1777 1885 2000 2129 2262 2325 2143 1944 1728 1502 1253 1014 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.6 14.7 15.0 15.2 15.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 120.5 121.4 122.2 122.9 123.7 125.1 126.5 128.1 129.9 131.7 133.4 135.1 137.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 7 7 6 8 8 9 9 8 8 10 11 11 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 25 24 23 22 21 19 18 18 18 17 14 14 15 12 10 10 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 29. 31. 32. 33. 33. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 11. 10. 9. 9. 10. 10. 9. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 18. 27. 34. 41. 45. 46. 46. 47. 49. 50. 51. 49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.4 120.5 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932025 INVEST 08/30/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.76 6.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.84 5.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 114.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -5.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.15 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.19 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.6 0.29 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.9% 15.8% 0.0% 0.0% 21.0% 19.6% 0.0% Logistic: 7.9% 33.8% 15.3% 11.3% 2.8% 18.6% 5.4% 4.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 3.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 18.5% 10.4% 3.8% 1.0% 13.2% 8.3% 1.6% DTOPS: 1.0% 6.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 3.0% 25.0% SDCON: 1.8% 12.2% 6.7% 2.4% 1.0% 8.1% 5.6% 13.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932025 INVEST 08/30/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##