* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP932025 08/31/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 33 36 43 50 58 65 69 72 76 76 77 74 76 75 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 33 36 43 50 58 65 69 72 76 76 77 74 76 75 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 31 35 38 41 44 48 52 57 60 62 64 63 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 4 5 5 2 6 0 4 8 8 6 6 4 8 10 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -4 -3 -5 -3 -6 0 -3 -5 -5 -5 -7 -4 -2 0 2 SHEAR DIR 81 63 36 62 96 190 169 53 69 57 53 41 59 6 355 322 288 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.5 27.3 27.1 27.4 27.6 26.4 26.8 27.2 25.8 26.4 26.2 26.0 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 144 142 137 136 134 138 140 127 132 137 122 129 126 124 123 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -52.9 -53.5 -53.1 -53.5 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 64 64 63 64 66 65 61 59 59 58 57 53 49 49 47 46 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 13 15 16 17 18 19 17 19 19 850 MB ENV VOR -5 9 14 20 21 27 31 39 34 31 27 13 5 13 21 25 24 200 MB DIV -6 -4 8 26 40 30 27 50 32 17 28 20 23 12 20 9 -12 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 -1 0 -2 0 0 -1 0 1 9 LAND (KM) 1493 1546 1587 1630 1675 1778 1880 1989 2106 2236 2198 1970 1709 1439 1166 920 706 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.4 14.5 14.6 14.7 14.7 14.9 15.1 15.5 15.7 15.8 15.8 15.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 121.1 121.9 122.6 123.3 124.0 125.3 126.9 128.6 130.5 132.3 134.4 136.6 139.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 6 7 8 9 9 9 10 12 13 13 12 11 9 HEAT CONTENT 24 23 23 21 20 18 17 16 15 13 11 13 10 8 7 9 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 17. 22. 25. 27. 30. 30. 31. 31. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 11. 12. 11. 11. 8. 9. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 11. 18. 25. 33. 40. 44. 47. 51. 51. 52. 49. 51. 50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.4 121.1 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932025 INVEST 08/31/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.75 6.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.85 5.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 112.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -5.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.23 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.19 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.6 0.39 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.4% 15.7% 0.0% 0.0% 20.5% 19.1% 0.0% Logistic: 6.5% 26.4% 12.4% 7.3% 2.8% 13.2% 16.6% 9.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 15.3% 9.4% 2.4% 0.9% 11.2% 11.9% 3.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 7.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 5.0% 7.0% 14.0% SDCON: 1.1% 11.1% 6.7% 1.7% 0.9% 8.1% 9.4% 8.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932025 INVEST 08/31/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##