* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * KIKO EP112025 09/03/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 93 93 93 91 87 81 79 79 79 79 77 72 69 65 62 58 V (KT) LAND 90 93 93 93 91 87 81 79 79 79 79 77 72 69 65 62 58 V (KT) LGEM 90 94 95 94 91 86 81 78 75 72 69 68 65 61 57 52 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 14 12 11 12 12 18 11 2 3 1 3 9 15 16 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -2 -1 0 -1 1 -4 -2 0 -2 0 -1 1 2 4 6 SHEAR DIR 68 76 86 86 83 51 60 52 55 76 61 354 243 260 249 253 235 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.4 27.3 27.6 27.5 26.8 26.2 26.0 25.6 26.4 25.7 25.8 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 140 141 140 137 136 139 138 131 125 123 119 128 121 121 122 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 -52.6 -52.9 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -53.0 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 55 55 56 55 56 57 54 54 51 46 45 41 39 37 35 36 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 19 16 18 18 19 17 19 20 20 20 20 18 18 17 16 14 850 MB ENV VOR 12 21 24 20 22 24 9 27 22 33 39 47 47 50 43 34 19 200 MB DIV 12 -2 -23 -22 -18 -12 16 31 19 -32 -6 14 29 9 13 14 33 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -2 -2 0 0 1 3 5 6 11 9 9 LAND (KM) 2138 2180 2222 2273 2323 2402 2247 2090 1950 1780 1579 1396 1211 994 727 511 342 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8 14.0 14.2 14.3 14.8 15.3 15.8 16.4 17.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 129.2 129.8 130.3 131.0 131.6 132.8 134.4 135.9 137.1 138.6 140.4 142.0 143.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 6 6 7 8 6 7 9 9 8 9 11 11 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 21 21 21 20 20 19 18 19 17 14 10 7 6 7 9 8 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -3. -6. -10. -13. -16. -19. -21. -24. -26. -28. -32. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 10. 10. 8. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 3. 3. 1. -3. -9. -11. -11. -11. -11. -13. -18. -21. -25. -28. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 13.8 129.2 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112025 KIKO 09/03/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.17 1.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 4.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.53 3.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 452.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.39 -2.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.11 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.56 3.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.17 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.6 0.62 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.5% 18.1% 16.1% 13.4% 10.6% 14.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.6% 5.7% 3.2% 1.3% 2.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.3% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.5% 8.4% 6.4% 4.9% 4.2% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 15.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 10.7% 5.7% 4.2% 2.9% 3.1% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112025 KIKO 09/03/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##