* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * MARIO EP132025 09/15/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 60 61 58 52 46 39 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 58 60 61 58 52 46 39 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 58 59 58 55 47 40 33 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 6 10 15 18 22 25 29 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 1 2 3 2 2 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 241 197 217 231 234 236 244 241 231 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 27.2 26.0 25.1 24.5 23.4 23.0 22.4 22.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 136 124 114 108 96 90 83 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.4 -51.4 -51.5 -51.5 -51.4 -51.3 -50.9 -50.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 61 59 58 57 54 49 42 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 15 15 14 14 14 12 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 91 79 86 71 68 67 78 58 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 35 34 47 20 18 44 9 7 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -3 0 5 9 10 9 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 486 512 521 533 565 549 556 575 604 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.3 20.8 21.4 22.1 22.8 24.2 25.1 25.7 26.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.8 114.7 115.6 116.5 117.3 118.8 119.7 120.3 120.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 11 10 8 5 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 8 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 0. -1. -5. -11. -17. -23. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 3. -3. -9. -16. -25. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 20.3 113.8 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132025 MARIO 09/15/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.33 3.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.44 2.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 251.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.62 -4.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.31 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 4.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.04 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 46.2 58.2 to 0.0 0.21 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -2.6 0.45 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.9% 23.1% 16.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.7% 2.6% 2.9% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.3% 8.6% 6.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 5.1% 4.8% 3.7% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132025 MARIO 09/15/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##