* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * MARIO EP132025 09/16/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 39 35 32 27 20 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 42 39 35 32 27 20 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 41 37 34 31 25 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 16 19 18 23 29 31 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 3 5 5 2 4 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 218 236 238 239 235 239 233 229 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.0 25.1 24.4 23.4 23.3 23.0 22.4 21.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 124 114 107 96 94 90 84 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.8 -51.8 -51.6 -51.6 -51.4 -51.1 -51.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 57 56 54 54 53 48 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 11 11 11 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 84 70 67 59 59 55 27 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 37 17 18 27 39 26 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 6 12 9 12 17 4 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 490 509 541 516 512 490 480 470 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.7 22.4 23.0 23.8 24.5 25.5 26.2 27.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.5 116.4 117.2 117.9 118.6 119.2 119.5 119.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 8 5 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -2. -3. -8. -13. -18. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -4. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -10. -13. -18. -25. -26. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 21.7 115.5 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132025 MARIO 09/16/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.27 1.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 0.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.18 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 230.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.65 -1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.30 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.02 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 50.4 58.2 to 0.0 0.13 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.6 0.40 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 6.5% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 2.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 1.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132025 MARIO 09/16/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##