* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * MARIO EP132025 09/16/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 37 33 30 28 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 37 33 30 28 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 36 33 30 27 22 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 18 19 22 25 30 38 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 5 4 0 5 1 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 237 244 243 238 242 237 234 226 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.0 24.1 23.3 23.4 23.1 22.4 22.0 21.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 113 104 95 95 92 83 78 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.8 -51.6 -51.7 -51.6 -51.3 -51.2 -51.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 55 53 53 53 47 46 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 11 11 11 9 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 65 60 59 56 61 59 46 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 15 8 21 46 22 -2 4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 8 8 11 13 5 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 542 550 533 531 530 539 556 556 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.3 23.1 23.8 24.4 25.0 25.9 26.4 26.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.7 117.5 118.2 118.8 119.3 120.0 120.4 120.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 8 7 4 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -15. -21. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -10. -12. -18. -23. -27. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 22.3 116.7 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132025 MARIO 09/16/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.25 0.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 0.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.8 34.9 to 7.7 0.15 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 213.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.67 -1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.27 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.02 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 47.5 58.2 to 0.0 0.18 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -2.6 0.23 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 3.3% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132025 MARIO 09/16/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##