* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * NARDA EP142025 09/22/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 49 54 60 75 81 87 86 89 86 85 83 79 75 67 60 V (KT) LAND 40 43 49 54 60 75 81 87 86 89 86 85 83 79 75 67 60 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 46 49 53 62 73 79 82 82 80 75 69 63 55 47 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 13 13 14 13 14 18 21 19 18 15 13 10 13 11 11 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 5 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 7 9 11 6 2 1 SHEAR DIR 48 22 47 69 68 61 74 75 85 76 63 45 65 38 22 32 12 SST (C) 29.2 29.6 29.9 29.9 29.7 29.9 29.5 29.0 28.5 28.5 27.7 27.3 27.6 25.5 24.7 24.0 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 156 160 164 164 162 164 160 155 150 150 142 137 140 118 109 101 94 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 -51.9 -52.3 -51.9 -51.9 -51.8 -51.9 -51.7 -51.4 -51.6 -51.8 -51.8 -51.8 -51.8 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 8 9 7 7 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 74 74 73 74 74 76 74 72 71 69 67 62 62 54 45 33 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 11 11 12 19 19 23 25 29 30 33 34 34 34 31 28 850 MB ENV VOR 43 50 55 53 45 57 67 80 82 81 68 68 78 85 93 102 122 200 MB DIV 78 77 69 78 75 74 78 71 59 39 52 21 23 -5 -9 -2 -35 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -2 0 -2 0 1 3 -1 -3 -7 -7 -7 -6 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 211 225 250 265 281 394 552 725 828 939 1099 1229 1355 1428 1459 1403 1295 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.5 15.7 15.9 16.1 16.1 16.0 16.2 16.1 16.3 16.7 17.1 17.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 101.0 101.8 102.7 103.6 104.6 106.5 108.8 111.0 113.2 115.6 118.2 120.6 122.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 12 12 11 10 9 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 46 46 46 44 41 38 31 26 24 23 18 13 10 6 5 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 501 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 54.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 15. 19. 22. 23. 25. 26. 26. 25. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 2. 7. 10. 17. 21. 28. 28. 29. 27. 25. 22. 18. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 14. 7. 1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 9. 14. 20. 35. 41. 47. 46. 49. 46. 45. 43. 39. 35. 27. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 15.2 101.0 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142025 NARDA 09/22/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.77 7.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.32 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 83.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 -6.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.53 3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.40 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.6 0.58 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.0% 24.8% 19.5% 15.9% 12.3% 23.4% 21.6% 16.0% Logistic: 2.6% 18.1% 7.2% 4.5% 1.0% 11.2% 9.2% 3.3% Bayesian: 0.4% 10.8% 4.1% 1.2% 0.6% 2.6% 3.1% 0.5% Consensus: 5.0% 17.9% 10.3% 7.2% 4.6% 12.4% 11.3% 6.6% DTOPS: 7.0% 39.0% 23.0% 16.0% 11.0% 25.0% 29.0% 8.0% SDCON: 6.0% 28.4% 16.6% 11.6% 7.8% 18.7% 20.1% 7.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142025 NARDA 09/22/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##