* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * NARDA EP142025 09/23/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 65 71 75 78 82 88 91 89 85 78 70 66 58 52 44 38 V (KT) LAND 60 65 71 75 78 82 88 91 89 85 78 70 66 58 52 44 38 V (KT) LGEM 60 65 70 74 76 80 84 84 80 72 64 55 46 38 31 27 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 15 21 24 23 24 17 19 19 18 13 12 4 4 8 6 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 2 2 3 1 4 4 5 8 13 16 18 9 2 2 2 SHEAR DIR 59 69 75 80 81 75 74 65 66 48 40 37 42 67 125 207 194 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.6 29.1 28.8 28.5 28.1 27.7 27.6 26.9 25.7 25.0 24.4 24.1 23.6 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 163 161 156 153 150 146 142 140 132 119 111 104 101 96 92 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.1 -51.6 -51.3 -51.7 -51.6 -51.4 -51.4 -51.2 -51.2 -51.5 -51.7 -51.8 -52.1 -51.8 -52.0 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 5 4 2 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 75 77 75 74 70 68 68 68 64 58 49 43 37 27 25 26 26 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 18 20 22 22 24 28 32 33 34 33 30 31 28 25 21 19 850 MB ENV VOR 44 53 62 73 76 107 115 111 127 134 139 124 129 126 131 120 109 200 MB DIV 65 27 38 48 39 17 46 75 48 22 8 23 21 -21 -38 -27 -31 700-850 TADV -5 -1 -1 3 3 2 -5 -10 -10 -10 -5 -1 2 0 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 374 450 520 606 703 876 986 1129 1271 1374 1455 1466 1427 1367 1276 1169 1047 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 15.7 15.6 15.6 15.5 15.4 15.4 15.7 16.1 16.6 17.2 18.0 19.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.6 106.8 107.9 109.1 110.2 112.5 115.0 117.6 120.0 122.0 123.6 124.7 125.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 11 9 8 6 5 4 4 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 41 38 35 32 29 28 29 26 18 14 11 7 5 4 4 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 437 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 38.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 6. 3. -0. -4. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -11. -9. -7. -6. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 12. 20. 24. 25. 23. 18. 17. 12. 8. 4. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 4. 0. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 15. 18. 22. 28. 31. 29. 25. 18. 10. 6. -2. -8. -16. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 15.7 105.6 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142025 NARDA 09/23/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.60 6.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.8 34.9 to 7.7 0.19 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 130.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 -5.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.38 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 5.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.31 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.6 0.57 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.1% 28.1% 20.2% 16.8% 12.9% 19.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.9% 11.7% 2.3% 1.7% 0.5% 0.9% 1.0% 0.4% Bayesian: 1.0% 5.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.3% 15.2% 7.7% 6.2% 4.5% 7.0% 0.3% 0.1% DTOPS: 28.0% 63.0% 56.0% 42.0% 32.0% 36.0% 11.0% 0.0% SDCON: 17.6% 39.1% 31.8% 24.1% 18.2% 21.5% 5.6% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142025 NARDA 09/23/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##