* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * OCTAVE EP152025 10/02/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 54 54 54 53 54 55 52 48 44 44 40 37 35 31 30 V (KT) LAND 55 55 54 54 54 53 54 55 52 48 44 44 40 37 35 31 30 V (KT) LGEM 55 55 55 55 54 51 49 49 48 45 41 37 33 30 27 24 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 22 25 23 20 9 3 1 5 4 6 13 25 33 33 29 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -3 -3 -5 0 0 2 -1 5 7 3 -8 -6 1 6 4 SHEAR DIR 91 87 92 100 105 109 121 188 238 214 186 123 114 101 94 80 62 SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.1 27.3 27.2 26.9 26.7 26.7 26.5 26.6 26.2 26.5 27.2 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 137 136 137 138 139 134 135 133 129 127 128 127 129 125 128 137 138 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -53.3 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -53.4 -53.0 -53.1 -52.4 -52.6 -51.9 -52.1 -51.6 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 5 700-500 MB RH 69 69 69 70 69 66 65 66 66 62 57 51 53 58 64 65 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 19 20 20 19 19 18 18 18 16 16 14 13 13 10 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 40 47 55 53 46 43 33 24 19 22 18 22 124 127 106 98 200 MB DIV 12 -2 -15 -8 -18 -19 -25 -28 -19 -9 -1 -1 30 60 40 15 5 700-850 TADV -1 -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 7 1 -23 LAND (KM) 1455 1468 1483 1509 1538 1590 1623 1660 1630 1584 1505 1421 1322 1221 1082 858 562 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.7 12.9 13.2 13.4 13.9 14.5 14.9 15.5 15.8 16.0 16.0 15.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 118.2 118.8 119.3 120.0 120.6 121.9 123.1 124.0 124.2 123.9 123.1 122.0 120.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 7 6 7 6 3 2 3 4 6 8 8 9 12 14 HEAT CONTENT 22 22 21 21 21 19 18 17 16 15 14 14 16 20 20 16 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -7. -6. -4. -2. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -0. -0. -3. -7. -10. -11. -15. -18. -20. -24. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 12.4 118.2 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152025 OCTAVE 10/02/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.44 3.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.8 34.9 to 7.7 0.30 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 194.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.69 -4.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.13 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 4.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.18 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.6 0.66 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.8% 15.9% 13.1% 10.4% 7.8% 14.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.7% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 5.7% 4.4% 3.5% 2.6% 5.0% 0.2% 0.3% DTOPS: 2.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.5% 4.3% 3.2% 2.7% 2.8% 3.0% 0.6% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152025 OCTAVE 10/02/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##