* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * OCTAVE EP152025 10/02/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 48 47 46 45 45 47 45 43 40 39 36 34 31 28 24 24 V (KT) LAND 50 48 47 46 45 45 47 45 43 40 39 36 34 31 28 24 24 V (KT) LGEM 50 48 47 45 44 42 41 41 41 39 36 35 33 31 27 23 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 26 24 19 18 10 5 6 4 3 5 25 27 35 35 29 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 0 0 7 1 -7 -4 1 4 3 0 SHEAR DIR 86 94 100 104 106 106 122 184 179 197 98 107 96 86 77 81 90 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.8 27.1 27.2 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.4 26.6 26.6 26.2 26.6 27.3 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 138 137 137 139 141 133 133 130 129 129 126 128 128 124 129 138 140 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -52.7 -52.2 -52.5 -51.9 -52.0 -52.1 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 4 6 700-500 MB RH 67 68 70 70 68 64 66 66 61 60 51 52 54 65 67 63 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 21 21 20 19 19 19 19 17 16 15 14 14 13 10 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 49 55 56 53 46 39 31 26 33 25 24 79 130 121 94 94 200 MB DIV 3 -4 -2 -13 -3 -24 -47 -15 -24 17 -14 4 72 64 17 19 48 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 4 3 -2 -14 LAND (KM) 1469 1484 1502 1530 1561 1607 1622 1629 1606 1544 1436 1347 1275 1182 1066 858 609 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.9 13.1 13.4 13.6 14.1 14.8 15.2 15.4 15.7 16.1 16.1 15.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 118.7 119.3 119.8 120.5 121.1 122.4 123.4 123.9 123.8 123.3 122.3 121.1 119.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 7 6 7 5 2 2 4 5 6 6 6 8 12 14 HEAT CONTENT 22 21 21 21 20 19 18 17 16 16 13 14 18 19 18 16 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -4. -3. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -7. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -3. -5. -7. -10. -11. -14. -16. -19. -22. -26. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 12.6 118.7 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152025 OCTAVE 10/02/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.49 3.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.29 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 181.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.70 -4.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.14 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 3.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.17 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.2 to -2.6 0.79 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 11.8% 10.4% 8.1% 6.2% 13.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 4.2% 3.5% 2.7% 2.1% 4.6% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.5% 2.6% 2.2% 1.8% 1.5% 2.3% 0.5% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152025 OCTAVE 10/02/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##