* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * OCTAVE EP152025 10/03/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 48 46 46 45 47 47 45 41 38 35 36 36 36 30 27 26 V (KT) LAND 50 48 46 46 45 47 47 45 41 38 35 36 36 36 30 27 26 V (KT) LGEM 50 48 46 45 43 41 41 41 39 36 32 30 30 28 24 20 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 23 21 16 13 5 3 3 5 2 10 15 24 31 35 35 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -3 -2 -1 -1 0 0 4 9 4 1 0 4 8 7 3 SHEAR DIR 93 102 109 112 109 97 141 198 216 354 92 100 98 83 79 87 103 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.7 27.9 27.6 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.3 26.6 27.8 27.3 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 140 142 139 134 132 129 128 127 129 132 127 129 141 137 139 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -52.9 -53.3 -52.9 -53.1 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.0 -52.3 -51.6 -52.3 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 3 3 5 700-500 MB RH 67 68 71 65 64 63 64 66 60 56 52 52 57 60 60 58 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 19 19 18 18 17 17 16 15 13 13 13 14 10 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 50 50 46 44 44 35 26 24 22 25 30 69 139 128 103 114 200 MB DIV -12 -14 -11 -5 -9 -37 -27 -43 -35 -5 -2 14 63 51 23 9 58 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 9 10 3 -6 LAND (KM) 1492 1506 1522 1557 1585 1610 1644 1621 1582 1567 1544 1438 1229 1090 1007 853 609 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.1 13.4 13.6 13.8 14.4 14.9 15.2 15.5 15.6 15.6 15.6 15.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 119.3 119.9 120.4 121.1 121.7 122.8 123.8 123.8 123.6 123.5 123.2 121.8 119.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 7 6 6 3 2 1 1 4 10 11 7 7 11 13 HEAT CONTENT 21 21 20 20 19 18 17 16 16 16 16 16 18 21 22 18 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -8. -7. -5. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -4. -5. -3. -3. -5. -9. -12. -15. -14. -14. -14. -20. -23. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 12.8 119.3 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152025 OCTAVE 10/03/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.50 3.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.34 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 186.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.70 -4.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.11 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 3.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.17 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.1 2.2 to -2.6 0.88 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 12.7% 11.0% 8.6% 6.6% 14.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 4.5% 3.7% 2.9% 2.2% 4.9% 0.1% 0.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 9.0% 8.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.5% 3.7% 2.8% 2.4% 2.1% 6.9% 4.0% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152025 OCTAVE 10/03/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##