* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * OCTAVE EP152025 10/03/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 43 42 43 45 45 44 40 37 36 35 32 29 29 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 44 43 42 43 45 45 44 40 37 36 35 32 29 29 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 43 42 41 40 39 39 39 37 33 30 28 27 25 22 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 18 13 7 4 5 4 7 7 4 14 25 30 32 30 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 1 1 0 0 2 7 2 0 0 5 6 8 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 101 107 108 101 73 10 153 203 210 110 98 89 92 77 79 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.6 27.8 27.4 27.1 27.2 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.6 26.9 26.6 26.6 27.7 27.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 139 141 137 133 133 130 129 129 128 131 128 129 141 137 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.0 -51.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 2 2 3 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 67 64 63 61 63 65 61 61 54 56 55 61 65 67 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 19 18 18 18 17 17 16 14 13 13 12 11 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 48 45 39 42 38 24 23 25 11 22 47 136 131 99 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -7 -10 -2 -7 -17 -36 -28 -33 -3 -5 -3 49 92 35 1 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 3 3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1517 1545 1577 1585 1597 1630 1637 1598 1521 1437 1351 1283 1190 1044 859 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.4 13.6 14.0 14.3 14.7 15.1 15.5 15.7 15.8 15.8 15.6 15.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 120.0 120.7 121.3 121.9 122.5 123.4 123.9 123.8 123.0 122.0 120.8 119.5 118.1 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 6 4 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 20 19 19 18 17 16 16 15 15 16 20 24 24 18 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -1. -4. -6. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -2. -5. -7. -9. -9. -8. -9. -8. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -2. -0. -0. -1. -5. -8. -9. -10. -13. -16. -16. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 13.1 120.0 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152025 OCTAVE 10/03/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.53 4.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.49 2.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 197.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.68 -4.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.12 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.51 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.16 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.9 2.2 to -2.6 0.85 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.6% 14.0% 12.1% 9.5% 7.5% 15.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 5.2% 4.1% 3.2% 2.5% 5.2% 0.1% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.1% 3.6% 2.5% 2.1% 1.7% 3.1% 0.5% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152025 OCTAVE 10/03/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##