* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * OCTAVE EP152025 10/03/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 43 44 45 47 47 43 41 39 37 37 34 31 32 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 44 43 44 45 47 47 43 41 39 37 37 34 31 32 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 43 43 42 42 43 42 40 35 31 28 26 24 20 18 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 10 6 4 4 2 4 5 3 15 14 31 29 36 28 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 1 1 0 2 1 7 7 0 7 7 9 6 6 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 107 108 95 82 73 150 228 234 32 97 75 88 87 74 65 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.7 27.3 27.0 27.2 27.2 27.0 26.9 27.0 27.0 27.2 27.2 27.0 27.8 27.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 140 135 132 134 133 129 129 131 131 134 135 134 144 140 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 -52.4 -52.6 -52.1 -52.3 -51.5 -52.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 64 63 63 66 66 66 61 59 55 54 54 60 63 68 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 18 18 19 18 18 17 16 14 13 13 11 9 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 47 42 41 42 42 28 24 16 11 5 11 38 133 119 100 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -2 -9 -29 -20 -31 -38 -40 -32 -2 -11 0 53 73 5 69 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 1 1 2 7 -4 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1553 1584 1605 1625 1647 1660 1629 1590 1544 1492 1442 1370 1244 999 683 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.6 13.8 14.1 14.3 14.8 15.3 15.5 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.2 15.0 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 120.7 121.4 122.0 122.6 123.2 123.9 124.0 123.7 122.9 122.2 121.5 120.3 118.4 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 6 5 3 2 3 3 3 5 7 11 15 18 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 19 19 18 18 17 16 16 17 17 17 19 25 24 18 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 3. -1. -4. -5. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -8. -9. -11. -10. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -11. -14. -13. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 13.3 120.7 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152025 OCTAVE 10/03/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.52 4.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 34.9 to 7.7 0.62 3.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 196.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.68 -4.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -18.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.07 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.15 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.4 2.2 to -2.6 0.94 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.4% 14.7% 12.7% 10.1% 8.0% 15.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 7.8% 2.3% 1.0% 0.3% 0.9% 0.4% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 7.5% 5.0% 3.7% 2.8% 5.4% 0.1% 0.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.9% 5.2% 3.5% 2.8% 2.4% 3.7% 1.0% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152025 OCTAVE 10/03/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##