* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * OCTAVE EP152025 10/03/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 53 55 56 55 53 48 45 40 38 37 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 52 53 55 56 55 53 48 45 40 38 37 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 52 54 55 56 55 53 48 41 36 32 29 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 5 3 4 1 2 6 9 7 20 24 26 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 -1 1 3 3 8 4 0 4 8 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 113 79 28 18 28 173 194 191 121 108 92 87 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 27.1 26.8 27.1 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.9 27.0 26.7 26.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 134 130 133 132 130 129 128 128 131 132 129 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.3 -52.6 -52.4 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 63 64 64 64 67 63 63 56 55 51 56 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 18 19 19 18 17 17 15 14 13 13 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 41 43 42 38 23 19 24 20 21 26 83 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -14 -30 -33 -44 -31 -41 -61 -16 0 25 61 74 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1592 1616 1643 1647 1652 1653 1622 1559 1498 1447 1396 1336 1267 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.8 14.0 14.4 14.7 15.2 15.5 15.6 15.7 15.5 15.2 15.0 14.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 121.4 122.1 122.8 123.3 123.7 124.2 124.1 123.4 122.7 121.8 120.7 119.6 118.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 6 5 2 3 3 4 5 6 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 19 18 18 17 16 15 16 15 16 18 22 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 3. 0. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -7. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 3. -2. -5. -10. -12. -13. -18. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 13.5 121.4 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152025 OCTAVE 10/03/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.45 4.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.72 4.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 229.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.65 -4.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -30.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.01 0.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 4.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.15 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.2 to -2.6 0.80 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.2% 19.1% 16.4% 13.5% 10.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.3% 22.9% 9.6% 5.3% 1.7% 3.4% 0.6% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.0% 14.4% 8.7% 6.3% 4.1% 1.2% 0.2% 0.3% DTOPS: 5.0% 9.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 5.5% 11.7% 7.3% 6.1% 5.0% 2.1% 0.6% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152025 OCTAVE 10/03/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##