* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * OCTAVE EP152025 10/04/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 46 46 46 45 41 36 32 26 25 21 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 46 46 46 46 45 41 36 32 26 25 21 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 44 44 44 44 41 36 32 28 25 22 20 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 1 3 2 5 8 14 18 24 26 26 32 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 1 3 3 7 -4 -5 1 5 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 97 307 288 221 201 174 172 140 114 80 72 76 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 27.2 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.6 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.9 27.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 134 133 132 130 129 128 128 133 130 129 132 140 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 3 2 2 1 1 2 2 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 64 63 66 66 63 62 57 55 50 50 54 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 19 18 18 19 17 15 14 13 13 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 42 36 27 22 21 30 15 19 18 50 131 113 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -35 -27 -35 -35 -35 -59 -17 -19 10 36 42 50 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 1 0 1 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1657 1673 1691 1675 1660 1622 1575 1474 1428 1385 1337 1237 1121 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.3 14.5 14.9 15.2 15.5 15.7 15.8 15.3 15.1 15.1 15.0 14.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 123.0 123.5 124.0 124.2 124.3 124.1 123.7 122.5 121.3 120.4 119.7 118.3 116.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 5 4 2 2 4 6 5 4 5 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 17 17 16 15 15 15 15 17 19 21 25 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 524 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 2. -1. -4. -8. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. -1. -4. -5. -8. -7. -9. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -4. -9. -13. -19. -20. -24. -26. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.0 123.0 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152025 OCTAVE 10/04/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.48 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.77 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 202.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.68 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -33.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.13 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.4 58.2 to 0.0 0.98 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.6 0.46 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.3% 22.5% 8.3% 3.9% 1.1% 1.0% 0.1% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 7.6% 2.8% 1.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 6.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.5% 6.8% 3.4% 2.1% 1.2% 1.2% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152025 OCTAVE 10/04/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##