* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * OCTAVE EP152025 10/04/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 55 56 56 53 47 40 34 29 23 20 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 52 55 56 56 53 47 40 34 29 23 20 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 51 52 52 51 47 40 35 31 28 25 22 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 5 3 3 5 12 18 22 24 30 33 34 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 3 5 7 -1 -6 -1 4 3 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 338 316 301 281 251 154 144 124 103 89 81 83 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.1 27.1 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.5 26.9 26.6 26.7 26.8 27.7 27.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 132 132 129 128 128 127 131 128 128 130 141 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 -52.3 -52.7 -51.8 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 2 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 63 65 66 66 64 59 55 54 55 58 66 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 18 18 19 18 16 14 13 13 11 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 30 23 19 17 13 8 13 7 60 115 113 90 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -34 -42 -39 -50 -59 -41 -13 1 30 66 50 27 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 3 2 1 3 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1661 1656 1652 1629 1607 1544 1451 1371 1322 1274 1199 1062 875 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.7 15.0 15.3 15.6 15.8 16.0 15.9 15.3 15.0 15.2 15.5 15.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 123.5 123.8 124.0 124.0 124.0 123.4 122.4 121.2 119.7 118.8 118.0 116.4 113.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 3 3 2 4 5 7 6 4 6 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 17 16 16 15 15 13 14 20 24 25 25 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. -1. -4. -8. -12. -15. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -7. -7. -9. -10. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 6. 6. 3. -3. -10. -16. -21. -27. -30. -31. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 14.4 123.5 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152025 OCTAVE 10/04/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.43 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.71 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 208.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.67 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -44.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.91 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.13 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.6 0.53 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 31.2% 52.2% 26.6% 14.2% 5.8% 2.6% 0.1% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.6% 2.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 10.6% 18.1% 8.9% 4.8% 2.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.2% DTOPS: 7.0% 15.0% 9.0% 7.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 8.8% 16.5% 8.9% 5.9% 3.5% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152025 OCTAVE 10/04/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##