* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * OCTAVE EP152025 10/04/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 60 60 58 53 46 40 33 28 24 22 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 58 60 60 58 53 46 40 33 28 24 22 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 58 60 60 59 52 44 37 33 29 25 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 3 2 3 6 14 21 20 26 30 36 36 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 3 5 6 6 -6 -2 3 6 5 10 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 321 342 296 264 192 153 134 117 90 78 82 81 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.0 26.7 27.3 27.8 27.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 131 129 128 126 127 128 128 122 129 136 143 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.0 -52.0 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 64 65 64 63 61 55 52 53 58 63 70 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 17 18 17 16 14 13 12 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 21 18 14 14 17 2 13 35 110 106 101 99 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -41 -46 -43 -71 -54 -35 10 15 49 67 38 31 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1660 1656 1653 1618 1583 1505 1421 1335 1306 1251 1140 965 771 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.0 15.2 15.5 15.7 15.9 16.0 15.9 15.4 15.1 15.3 15.8 16.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 123.8 124.0 124.2 124.0 123.8 123.0 122.0 120.7 119.6 118.6 117.3 115.3 112.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 2 3 3 4 5 6 6 5 8 11 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 16 15 15 15 14 13 15 20 24 25 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -5. -10. -14. -17. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. -0. -1. -3. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 5. 3. -2. -9. -15. -22. -27. -31. -33. -33. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 14.7 123.8 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152025 OCTAVE 10/04/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.38 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.64 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 231.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.64 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -51.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.12 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.6 58.2 to 0.0 0.99 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.6 0.55 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 13.1% 23.2% 11.9% 4.5% 1.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.6% 2.8% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.6% 8.7% 4.0% 1.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% DTOPS: 10.0% 9.0% 5.0% 6.0% 6.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 7.3% 8.8% 4.5% 3.8% 3.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152025 OCTAVE 10/04/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##