* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * OCTAVE EP152025 10/05/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 55 53 51 45 39 36 31 27 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 56 55 53 51 45 39 36 31 27 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 56 56 54 51 44 37 33 29 26 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 6 6 4 7 15 20 16 30 31 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 3 5 6 0 -5 0 2 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 317 268 288 230 159 137 124 91 87 86 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 26.8 26.6 26.5 26.5 26.4 26.6 26.2 26.1 27.0 27.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 130 128 126 126 126 125 128 124 123 132 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 -52.5 -51.9 -52.4 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 2 2 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 65 63 61 61 57 52 54 60 67 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 19 18 18 16 14 14 13 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 22 16 16 17 16 14 20 107 114 104 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -46 -36 -52 -36 -34 0 2 0 59 23 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 3 2 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1645 1622 1599 1560 1521 1428 1346 1304 1228 1138 1055 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.5 15.7 15.9 16.0 16.2 16.2 15.8 15.6 15.5 15.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 124.1 124.1 124.0 123.7 123.3 122.3 121.2 120.1 118.8 117.5 116.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 15 14 14 13 12 12 17 20 24 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -3. -6. -11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -2. -4. -10. -16. -19. -24. -28. -32. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 15.2 124.1 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152025 OCTAVE 10/05/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.36 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.56 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 232.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.64 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -40.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.11 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.6 58.2 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.6 0.47 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.7% Logistic: 4.2% 11.0% 5.7% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 3.9% 1.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 1.6% DTOPS: 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.2% 2.9% 1.4% 0.7% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152025 OCTAVE 10/05/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##