* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * OCTAVE EP152025 10/05/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 60 60 58 55 48 44 38 31 28 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 60 60 58 55 48 44 38 31 28 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 61 59 57 53 45 39 35 32 28 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 6 4 8 11 14 18 27 32 30 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 4 3 7 -2 -5 -1 3 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 284 293 219 162 165 129 116 93 87 80 86 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.7 26.5 26.3 26.4 26.4 26.6 26.4 26.0 26.8 27.5 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 128 126 124 125 125 128 126 122 130 137 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.0 -52.0 -52.3 -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 63 60 62 59 56 56 55 63 68 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 17 17 16 15 14 13 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 15 14 19 24 7 21 56 107 102 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -33 -48 -27 -31 -2 -1 13 39 53 30 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 4 6 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1630 1584 1538 1494 1451 1391 1305 1274 1182 1097 1003 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.8 16.1 16.2 16.3 16.1 16.1 15.7 15.4 15.4 15.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 124.2 123.9 123.6 123.2 122.7 121.7 120.5 119.5 118.0 116.8 115.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 7 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 14 13 12 12 12 14 18 23 25 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -2. -6. -9. -13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. -2. -5. -12. -16. -22. -29. -32. -35. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 15.5 124.2 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152025 OCTAVE 10/05/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.30 2.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.49 3.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 256.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.62 -4.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -28.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.02 0.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 4.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.10 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.2 58.2 to 0.0 0.94 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.6 0.44 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.2% 14.5% 11.9% 9.1% 14.5% 0.0% 3.9% Logistic: 3.7% 6.8% 4.2% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 8.2% 6.3% 4.2% 3.1% 4.9% 0.0% 1.3% DTOPS: 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.6% 5.1% 3.6% 2.6% 2.5% 2.4% 0.0% 0.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152025 OCTAVE 10/05/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##