* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * OCTAVE EP152025 10/05/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 72 70 68 64 57 50 43 38 35 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 72 70 68 64 57 50 43 38 35 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 73 72 69 64 55 48 42 38 33 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 3 10 9 10 18 18 26 32 38 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 1 6 4 -5 -1 4 3 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 300 162 149 167 135 118 92 85 74 84 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.7 26.1 26.4 27.2 28.0 27.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 128 128 127 127 127 129 123 126 135 143 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 -52.5 -52.1 -52.4 -51.9 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 62 61 60 58 53 54 57 64 68 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 16 16 15 14 13 12 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 9 11 19 12 8 12 96 103 95 91 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -50 -29 -21 -4 -5 12 21 68 32 58 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 1 2 1 2 3 8 9 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1599 1556 1513 1474 1436 1363 1308 1259 1147 1003 838 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.6 15.8 15.9 16.0 16.0 15.9 15.6 15.2 15.3 15.8 16.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 123.9 123.5 123.1 122.7 122.2 121.1 119.9 118.8 117.4 115.9 114.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 6 7 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 14 14 13 13 14 18 22 25 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -13. -16. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 0. -2. -6. -13. -20. -27. -32. -35. -38. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 15.6 123.9 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152025 OCTAVE 10/05/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.23 2.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 4.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.49 3.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 277.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.59 -3.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -21.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.06 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 4.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.11 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.8 58.2 to 0.0 0.97 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.6 0.39 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.4% 14.2% 11.9% 8.9% 14.4% 9.9% 0.0% Logistic: 3.3% 4.4% 3.9% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 6.9% 6.0% 4.1% 3.1% 4.8% 3.3% 0.0% DTOPS: 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.7% 3.9% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 2.4% 1.6% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152025 OCTAVE 10/05/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##