* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * OCTAVE EP152025 10/05/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 70 68 64 60 54 47 40 34 32 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 70 68 64 60 54 47 40 34 32 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 71 69 64 60 51 45 40 35 30 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 11 12 12 14 17 24 28 32 29 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 6 2 -2 -6 -1 4 5 5 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 157 141 157 139 133 112 90 84 84 75 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.6 26.6 26.5 26.6 26.8 26.8 26.5 27.1 28.0 27.7 28.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 127 126 128 130 130 127 134 145 143 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.9 -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 62 60 58 55 54 52 59 67 76 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 17 15 14 14 13 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 13 21 9 3 19 56 101 92 84 98 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -25 -17 -9 -10 -5 19 58 49 39 44 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 2 1 1 1 5 9 -1 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1545 1494 1443 1405 1368 1306 1252 1190 1020 757 494 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.1 16.3 16.3 16.2 16.0 15.8 15.4 15.9 17.1 18.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 123.5 123.1 122.6 122.1 121.5 120.4 119.3 118.1 116.3 113.8 111.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 11 14 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 13 12 11 12 15 18 23 21 15 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 5 CX,CY: 4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -12. -14. -15. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -10. -10. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -2. -6. -10. -16. -23. -30. -36. -37. -38. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 15.9 123.5 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152025 OCTAVE 10/05/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.23 2.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.44 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 301.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.57 -3.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.10 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 4.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.09 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.6 0.39 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.0% 13.9% 13.1% 10.9% 8.2% 13.7% 9.4% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 1.5% 1.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.3% 5.2% 4.8% 3.7% 2.8% 4.6% 3.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.6% 3.1% 2.4% 1.8% 1.9% 2.3% 1.5% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152025 OCTAVE 10/05/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##