* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * OCTAVE EP152025 10/06/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 68 64 60 57 52 45 40 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 68 64 60 57 52 45 40 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 68 64 59 55 48 42 38 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 12 12 15 16 12 25 31 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 2 -1 -3 0 3 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 147 161 143 136 125 88 78 80 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.6 27.4 27.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 127 127 128 128 128 128 138 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.7 -52.1 -52.2 -51.9 -52.4 -51.9 -52.3 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 59 57 53 53 52 56 63 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 14 13 13 13 12 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 17 10 8 7 22 97 104 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -34 -21 -29 -14 5 6 60 55 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 1 2 1 1 1 3 7 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1490 1436 1382 1341 1300 1260 1205 1092 899 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.3 16.4 16.4 16.4 16.0 15.7 15.7 16.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 123.1 122.5 121.9 121.4 120.8 119.7 118.6 117.1 114.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 5 5 5 5 7 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 11 11 11 12 16 20 22 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -9. -13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -6. -10. -13. -18. -25. -30. -33. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 16.2 123.1 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152025 OCTAVE 10/06/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.23 1.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.41 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 329.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.53 -3.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -18.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.07 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 3.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.08 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.6 0.43 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.3% 11.3% 9.1% 7.0% 11.3% 7.1% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 4.2% 3.9% 3.1% 2.4% 3.8% 2.4% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 2.1% 1.9% 1.5% 1.2% 1.9% 1.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152025 OCTAVE 10/06/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##