* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * OCTAVE EP152025 10/06/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 60 56 51 48 42 37 31 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 60 56 51 48 42 37 31 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 61 56 52 48 41 36 31 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 16 18 22 19 20 29 31 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 2 -3 -6 -3 4 2 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 158 134 132 120 123 80 74 76 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.5 26.6 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.5 27.2 28.0 27.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 128 130 130 129 127 135 143 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -51.9 -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 -51.9 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 58 55 52 53 53 58 64 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 15 15 13 14 12 12 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 9 5 5 17 61 93 95 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -20 -22 -10 5 19 41 52 50 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 2 1 2 1 2 5 4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1436 1397 1360 1321 1282 1229 1159 1022 882 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.3 16.2 16.2 16.2 15.8 15.5 15.8 16.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 122.5 122.0 121.4 120.9 120.3 119.0 117.8 116.2 114.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 11 12 12 13 18 23 22 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 6 CX,CY: 6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -13. -17. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -8. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -14. -17. -23. -28. -34. -37. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 16.3 122.5 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152025 OCTAVE 10/06/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.28 2.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.35 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 313.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.55 -3.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.13 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 4.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.09 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.6 0.34 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.8% 11.3% 10.8% 8.8% 6.8% 9.9% 6.3% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 3.8% 3.6% 2.9% 2.3% 3.3% 2.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.3% 1.9% 1.8% 1.4% 1.1% 1.6% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152025 OCTAVE 10/06/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##