* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * OCTAVE EP152025 10/07/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 40 37 35 31 28 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 43 40 37 35 31 28 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 44 42 39 36 31 25 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 17 21 24 29 34 31 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 4 8 5 5 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 113 92 88 87 77 73 79 100 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.8 26.6 26.7 27.2 27.5 28.0 27.5 28.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 130 128 129 135 138 145 141 152 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -51.9 -51.6 -52.0 -51.9 -52.3 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 51 54 58 61 65 68 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 12 11 10 10 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 15 20 42 83 93 84 79 103 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 6 10 33 57 60 38 70 99 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 3 3 5 2 1 -7 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1275 1252 1220 1178 1140 981 738 522 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.9 15.8 15.6 15.5 15.3 15.7 16.9 18.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 119.8 119.3 118.7 118.0 117.3 115.4 113.0 110.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 7 8 11 14 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 17 20 22 24 23 16 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):100/ 6 CX,CY: 6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 7. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -2. -6. -9. -13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -8. -10. -14. -17. -21. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.9 119.8 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152025 OCTAVE 10/07/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.48 2.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.05 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 237.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.64 -2.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.33 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.30 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.16 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.5 58.2 to 0.0 0.77 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.6 0.29 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 11.4% 6.4% 5.8% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 3.8% 2.2% 1.9% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.0% 2.9% 1.6% 1.4% 0.8% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152025 OCTAVE 10/07/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##