* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * PRISCILLA EP162025 10/05/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 67 71 73 76 78 73 69 60 49 40 34 26 18 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 63 67 71 73 76 78 73 69 60 49 40 34 26 18 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 63 64 65 66 67 67 65 61 53 44 36 29 22 17 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 22 17 16 17 14 15 20 17 16 12 12 11 25 28 32 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -2 -1 -1 -2 -3 0 0 0 0 3 6 4 5 6 0 SHEAR DIR 81 83 85 74 75 76 67 96 95 124 112 170 184 200 208 213 218 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 28.7 28.8 28.5 27.4 26.7 25.5 24.4 23.9 23.4 23.1 22.9 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 156 156 155 150 151 148 137 130 117 105 98 93 90 88 86 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.7 -52.2 -52.2 -51.9 -51.6 -51.5 -51.5 -51.5 -51.3 -51.1 -51.2 -51.3 -51.4 -51.6 -51.3 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 73 73 74 72 74 75 73 73 69 67 67 69 67 70 68 63 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 28 28 29 29 29 33 32 34 33 30 28 27 24 21 20 19 850 MB ENV VOR 49 51 39 39 43 36 55 89 91 98 84 72 56 69 63 62 72 200 MB DIV 131 136 148 107 77 49 55 53 48 39 3 -18 7 22 9 27 33 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 -4 -3 -6 -2 -1 0 5 14 9 5 -3 -17 -25 LAND (KM) 401 391 383 377 377 418 384 324 354 350 374 347 330 321 319 294 265 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.6 16.8 17.3 17.7 18.6 19.5 20.4 21.3 22.4 23.6 24.6 25.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.0 107.2 107.4 107.7 108.1 109.2 110.5 111.6 113.0 114.3 115.6 116.4 116.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 4 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 5 3 2 3 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 34 33 32 30 27 21 16 12 6 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 504 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 39.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -13. -17. -20. -24. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 5. 5. 9. 6. 2. 0. -1. -4. -6. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 9. 4. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 13. 16. 18. 13. 9. -0. -11. -20. -26. -34. -42. -48. -56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 16.3 107.0 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162025 PRISCILLA 10/05/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.56 10.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 6.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.36 4.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 114.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -11.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 119.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.75 8.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 10.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.87 7.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.27 1.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 3.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.6 0.40 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 57% is 4.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 22.5% 56.6% 42.4% 32.3% 21.8% 25.3% 19.2% 10.4% Logistic: 4.0% 14.7% 3.9% 2.7% 1.9% 1.6% 0.7% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.1% 2.7% 1.0% 0.4% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 9.2% 24.6% 15.8% 11.8% 8.2% 9.0% 6.6% 3.5% DTOPS: 12.0% 39.0% 28.0% 18.0% 13.0% 45.0% 18.0% 0.0% SDCON: 10.6% 31.8% 21.9% 14.9% 10.6% 27.0% 12.3% 1.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162025 PRISCILLA 10/05/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##