* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * PRISCILLA EP162025 10/06/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 69 74 76 79 81 81 76 68 60 49 37 30 23 17 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 69 74 76 79 81 81 76 68 60 49 37 30 23 17 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 69 72 74 75 75 73 70 62 53 43 33 25 20 16 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 17 16 20 20 14 19 14 10 4 6 8 16 25 32 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -2 -4 -6 -2 -2 -1 1 1 5 5 6 8 8 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 74 88 80 71 70 64 88 93 123 168 140 207 201 220 217 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.7 28.6 27.9 26.9 26.2 24.8 24.0 23.4 23.1 23.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 156 155 154 151 150 142 132 124 109 100 93 90 89 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -52.1 -52.1 -51.7 -51.3 -51.7 -51.3 -51.7 -51.0 -51.2 -50.8 -51.2 -51.1 -51.2 -50.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 4 5 3 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 73 72 73 73 74 74 71 66 67 65 65 66 63 62 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 28 31 31 31 31 34 34 33 33 30 26 24 21 19 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 43 40 42 45 36 76 80 99 77 81 45 59 46 59 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 115 114 95 80 78 25 45 55 53 3 0 6 24 18 48 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -3 -4 -3 -1 -2 -2 -1 3 9 16 7 7 -13 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 388 375 370 379 389 427 347 332 354 348 371 318 281 245 213 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.9 17.3 17.8 18.2 19.1 20.0 20.9 22.0 23.1 24.1 25.0 25.8 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.1 107.4 107.7 108.2 108.6 109.8 111.2 112.4 113.8 115.0 115.9 116.5 116.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 34 32 30 27 24 18 14 8 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 477 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 39.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. -7. -11. -15. -20. -24. -28. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 4. 6. 5. 4. 1. -5. -7. -9. -10. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 9. 4. 0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 11. 14. 16. 16. 11. 3. -5. -16. -28. -35. -42. -48. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 16.5 107.1 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162025 PRISCILLA 10/06/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.51 8.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 7.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.42 5.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 134.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 -10.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 96.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.64 6.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 9.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 6.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.25 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 3.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.6 0.37 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 36% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 48% is 3.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 35.8% 47.9% 38.6% 27.7% 18.3% 23.7% 17.5% 9.4% Logistic: 6.0% 11.9% 2.7% 1.8% 1.9% 1.1% 0.5% 0.1% Bayesian: 3.6% 3.7% 0.9% 0.3% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 15.1% 21.2% 14.0% 9.9% 7.1% 8.3% 6.0% 3.2% DTOPS: 25.0% 33.0% 24.0% 18.0% 16.0% 17.0% 7.0% 0.0% SDCON: 20.0% 27.1% 19.0% 13.9% 11.5% 12.6% 6.5% 1.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162025 PRISCILLA 10/06/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##