* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * PRISCILLA EP162025 10/06/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 79 81 84 84 86 81 77 68 59 47 37 29 22 16 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 79 81 84 84 86 81 77 68 59 47 37 29 22 16 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 81 84 85 85 81 77 70 59 49 39 30 24 19 15 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 16 19 20 14 19 16 10 7 7 7 11 19 27 29 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -2 -3 -1 -7 -1 0 0 2 7 5 11 5 4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 79 76 73 69 84 77 105 105 151 146 208 231 215 219 227 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 28.9 28.8 28.5 27.3 26.3 25.4 24.3 23.4 23.2 23.2 23.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 156 156 153 152 149 136 125 116 104 94 91 90 89 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.1 -51.6 -51.2 -51.5 -51.3 -51.5 -51.3 -51.0 -50.9 -50.7 -51.0 -51.1 -51.2 -50.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 5 5 4 4 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 73 75 75 75 74 73 67 67 65 65 65 65 54 41 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 29 29 32 31 34 33 33 32 30 26 22 19 16 13 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 47 44 41 45 39 43 87 85 89 72 68 48 57 71 68 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 121 86 80 72 39 34 46 51 22 -3 13 2 18 26 28 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -3 -2 -2 -3 -1 -1 0 7 17 14 3 -4 -15 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 353 350 351 367 385 371 309 320 305 309 287 226 179 173 212 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.4 17.7 18.2 18.7 19.6 20.5 21.6 22.7 23.8 24.9 25.9 26.7 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.2 107.5 107.8 108.4 108.9 110.2 111.5 112.8 114.0 115.0 115.8 116.2 116.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 6 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 3 2 2 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 33 31 29 25 23 17 12 6 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 498 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 28.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -3. -7. -11. -16. -21. -27. -32. -37. -41. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -3. -1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 4. 4. 6. 4. 1. -4. -9. -11. -13. -15. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 9. 9. 11. 6. 2. -7. -16. -28. -38. -46. -53. -59. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 17.0 107.2 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162025 PRISCILLA 10/06/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.43 4.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 4.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.42 3.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 147.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 -5.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.55 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 4.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.24 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.6 0.36 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 25.1% 23.9% 19.8% 16.7% 13.0% 19.4% 13.4% 6.4% Logistic: 2.1% 4.2% 1.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 5.0% 3.8% 1.4% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 10.7% 10.6% 7.4% 5.9% 4.6% 6.5% 4.5% 2.2% DTOPS: 19.0% 31.0% 22.0% 12.0% 11.0% 13.0% 2.0% 0.0% SDCON: 14.8% 20.8% 14.7% 8.9% 7.8% 9.7% 3.2% 1.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162025 PRISCILLA 10/06/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##