* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * PRISCILLA EP162025 10/06/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 77 78 77 78 79 75 68 57 47 37 28 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 77 78 77 78 79 75 68 57 47 37 28 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 78 79 79 79 76 70 61 51 41 32 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 22 19 16 15 24 15 13 6 11 15 13 25 28 31 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -4 -2 0 -2 -4 0 0 2 2 8 10 5 3 5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 72 68 61 80 75 88 84 112 162 194 245 226 218 231 231 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.3 29.2 28.9 28.7 28.7 27.9 26.7 25.9 24.6 23.5 23.3 23.3 23.4 22.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 156 155 152 150 151 142 130 122 107 95 91 90 93 88 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.4 -51.0 -51.5 -51.6 -51.1 -51.6 -50.9 -51.1 -50.5 -50.8 -50.8 -51.6 -51.1 -51.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 1 1 0 1 0 2 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 73 75 75 75 72 68 63 60 59 60 61 56 52 42 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 30 31 29 30 34 33 31 28 26 22 19 15 12 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 45 48 42 32 71 83 93 67 78 41 44 39 60 83 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 67 72 68 37 13 26 24 32 9 -11 -14 3 8 27 33 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -3 -1 -1 -2 -2 0 11 11 17 8 5 -11 -17 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 337 348 363 383 413 335 309 320 310 308 233 201 196 150 68 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.8 18.2 18.7 19.1 20.0 21.1 22.1 23.3 24.6 25.7 26.3 26.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.3 107.8 108.3 108.9 109.4 110.8 112.3 113.4 114.7 115.6 116.1 116.2 116.2 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 7 7 7 9 8 8 8 7 4 2 1 3 3 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 32 29 26 23 20 15 8 4 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 491 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -3. -8. -12. -18. -24. -30. -36. -41. -45. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -5. -5. -7. -6. -4. -2. 0. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. -1. -0. 2. 2. 1. -3. -7. -12. -15. -17. -19. -22. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 2. 3. 4. -0. -7. -18. -28. -38. -47. -56. -62. -69. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 17.3 107.3 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162025 PRISCILLA 10/06/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.42 3.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.2 34.9 to 7.7 0.39 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 145.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 -5.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.41 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 4.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.22 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.6 0.31 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.2% 20.0% 16.7% 14.0% 10.8% 15.8% 10.8% 5.0% Logistic: 2.0% 5.2% 0.9% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 1.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.6% 9.0% 6.0% 4.9% 3.8% 5.3% 3.6% 1.7% DTOPS: 11.0% 30.0% 17.0% 16.0% 15.0% 12.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 8.3% 19.5% 11.5% 10.4% 9.4% 8.6% 1.8% 0.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162025 PRISCILLA 10/06/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##