* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * PRISCILLA EP162025 10/06/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 76 76 78 79 78 73 65 53 41 30 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 76 76 78 79 78 73 65 53 41 30 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 75 75 75 74 71 64 55 45 36 28 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 18 16 16 19 19 9 9 8 12 17 17 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -1 -3 -4 -3 1 0 1 6 3 11 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 67 61 77 81 85 100 99 168 171 210 245 226 226 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.3 28.9 28.8 28.9 28.6 27.1 26.2 24.9 24.3 23.8 22.9 21.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 153 152 153 150 134 124 111 104 99 88 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.0 -51.5 -51.4 -51.1 -51.2 -51.0 -50.9 -50.9 -50.7 -50.9 -51.1 -51.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 1 1 0 0 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 74 74 72 71 70 63 60 58 59 58 58 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 31 32 30 33 33 35 33 31 27 24 20 16 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 48 53 46 38 44 93 87 93 71 62 48 47 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 72 62 31 14 18 29 43 16 -9 9 7 20 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -3 -1 0 -3 -2 0 7 9 12 13 3 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 315 331 350 388 326 271 292 264 284 229 130 68 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.5 19.0 19.5 20.0 20.9 22.0 23.1 24.2 25.3 26.5 27.4 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.6 108.2 108.7 109.4 110.0 111.5 112.8 113.9 114.9 115.4 115.5 115.5 115.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 30 26 24 21 19 12 6 3 2 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 6 CX,CY: -1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -4. -10. -15. -22. -27. -34. -40. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -3. -1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 1. 2. 3. 2. -0. -6. -11. -15. -19. -23. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 4. 3. -2. -10. -22. -34. -45. -54. -64. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 18.0 107.6 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162025 PRISCILLA 10/06/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.42 3.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.8 34.9 to 7.7 0.44 2.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 155.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 -5.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.36 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 4.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.20 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.6 0.43 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.0% 21.2% 16.3% 13.2% 10.4% 15.1% 11.7% 5.1% Logistic: 1.0% 2.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.7% 8.0% 5.6% 4.5% 3.6% 5.0% 3.9% 1.7% DTOPS: 10.0% 51.0% 40.0% 20.0% 12.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 7.3% 29.5% 22.8% 12.2% 7.8% 5.5% 1.9% 0.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162025 PRISCILLA 10/06/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##