* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * PRISCILLA EP162025 10/07/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 75 77 77 78 75 67 60 46 35 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 75 77 77 78 75 67 60 46 35 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 75 74 74 73 67 59 49 39 30 22 16 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 14 14 20 20 12 12 5 8 15 19 25 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -3 -5 -5 -2 -1 3 8 12 10 9 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 65 88 79 90 100 102 136 213 207 238 234 224 226 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 27.9 26.5 25.5 24.7 23.9 22.1 22.0 29.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 152 153 153 153 142 128 117 109 100 82 81 164 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.3 -51.4 -51.1 -51.0 -51.2 -50.7 -51.0 -50.5 -50.9 -50.8 -51.0 -50.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 2 3 0 1 0 1 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 71 72 69 71 67 60 60 61 60 59 53 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 31 29 32 32 34 33 30 29 24 21 17 12 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 53 44 34 40 55 86 100 78 76 44 47 50 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 33 11 17 27 17 46 17 19 4 14 15 34 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -1 0 -3 -3 0 0 5 10 18 5 -9 -20 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 316 351 352 298 260 252 261 249 219 107 29 -7 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.3 19.8 20.3 20.7 21.7 22.8 23.9 25.2 26.6 27.9 29.4 31.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.2 108.9 109.5 110.2 110.8 112.1 113.4 114.4 115.0 115.3 115.3 114.9 114.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 27 23 21 18 15 8 3 2 2 1 1 2 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 440 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. -1. -6. -12. -18. -25. -32. -39. -41. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -1. 1. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -3. -10. -14. -19. -24. -26. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 2. 3. -0. -8. -15. -29. -40. -51. -62. -64. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 18.8 108.2 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162025 PRISCILLA 10/07/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.41 3.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.2 34.9 to 7.7 0.47 3.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 179.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.70 -4.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.27 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 4.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.17 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.0 58.2 to 0.0 0.98 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.6 0.47 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.8% 20.5% 15.8% 12.8% 10.0% 15.3% 11.7% 0.0% Logistic: 2.7% 4.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.2% 8.3% 5.5% 4.4% 3.5% 5.1% 3.9% 0.0% DTOPS: 21.0% 38.0% 28.0% 16.0% 10.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 13.1% 23.1% 16.7% 10.2% 6.7% 4.0% 1.9% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162025 PRISCILLA 10/07/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##