* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * PRISCILLA EP162025 10/07/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 82 82 83 81 76 66 55 42 29 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 82 82 83 81 76 66 55 42 29 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 81 82 80 77 69 58 47 37 28 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 17 21 23 21 12 11 4 12 16 20 30 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 -8 -5 -4 -1 0 3 9 8 13 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 96 88 85 99 107 102 148 161 223 234 222 231 241 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.5 27.1 26.0 24.8 24.1 23.7 22.4 20.7 29.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 153 152 148 134 123 109 102 97 84 67 160 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.2 -51.0 -50.9 -51.2 -51.1 -50.9 -50.9 -50.7 -51.0 -50.9 -50.9 -50.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 3 1 1 0 1 0 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 69 68 69 68 63 59 58 55 55 55 50 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 33 32 34 33 32 29 26 22 18 14 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 33 41 56 80 84 89 71 55 56 66 52 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 20 26 43 14 15 26 21 4 21 6 32 67 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 -3 -3 -2 2 4 14 11 1 -2 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 374 372 317 288 277 292 262 289 199 119 32 32 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.6 20.1 20.5 20.9 22.0 23.3 24.4 25.6 26.7 27.7 28.8 30.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.0 109.7 110.4 111.0 111.6 112.8 114.1 115.0 115.4 115.5 115.3 114.8 114.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 7 7 8 8 6 6 5 6 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 19 17 14 11 5 2 2 2 1 1 1 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 385 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 1. -2. -9. -17. -24. -32. -39. -47. -50. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -6. -5. -2. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 3. 3. 2. -1. -5. -11. -16. -22. -27. -28. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 3. 1. -4. -14. -25. -38. -51. -64. -75. -77. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 19.1 109.0 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162025 PRISCILLA 10/07/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.35 3.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.45 2.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 238.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.64 -4.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.28 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 3.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.13 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.7 58.2 to 0.0 0.97 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.6 0.59 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.6% 19.6% 15.6% 12.7% 9.9% 14.6% 10.7% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 2.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.2% 7.2% 5.3% 4.3% 3.4% 4.9% 3.6% 0.0% DTOPS: 18.0% 16.0% 8.0% 5.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 11.6% 11.6% 6.6% 4.6% 3.7% 2.4% 1.8% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162025 PRISCILLA 10/07/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##