* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * PRISCILLA EP162025 10/07/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 91 90 85 81 71 59 45 30 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 91 90 85 81 71 59 45 30 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 93 92 88 82 68 54 43 33 25 18 15 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 21 24 21 13 12 6 10 14 18 27 42 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -7 -5 -4 -1 -1 1 2 7 7 9 0 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 83 82 96 108 105 134 168 194 224 211 223 228 242 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.2 27.5 26.3 25.3 24.5 23.8 23.3 21.4 24.6 30.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 151 145 138 126 115 106 99 94 74 108 165 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -50.9 -50.8 -51.0 -51.3 -50.7 -51.0 -50.7 -51.1 -50.9 -51.0 -51.0 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 2 2 1 2 0 1 1 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 68 69 66 65 61 55 52 54 55 47 41 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 34 32 35 32 32 31 27 24 20 15 10 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 48 67 89 83 91 68 65 47 61 52 50 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 23 43 34 15 28 15 2 5 1 10 55 47 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -6 -5 -2 -1 0 3 6 10 -8 -13 -17 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 371 325 300 295 313 306 305 260 175 99 79 -35 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.6 20.1 20.5 21.0 21.4 22.5 23.7 25.0 26.0 27.1 28.4 29.8 31.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.8 110.6 111.3 112.0 112.6 113.7 114.9 115.4 115.6 115.6 115.5 114.8 113.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 7 7 8 6 6 6 7 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 16 13 9 7 3 2 1 1 1 1 4 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 396 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. -1. -7. -16. -25. -35. -43. -52. -60. -61. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -7. -6. -3. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. -1. -1. -2. -6. -13. -20. -26. -33. -37. -34. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -5. -9. -19. -31. -45. -60. -73. -87. -95. -91. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 19.6 109.8 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162025 PRISCILLA 10/07/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.23 2.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 4.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.44 2.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 294.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.57 -3.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.30 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.56 2.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.10 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.6 0.57 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.9% 17.4% 14.9% 12.3% 9.4% 12.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.1% 3.2% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 11.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 8.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.6% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162025 PRISCILLA 10/07/25 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##