* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * PRISCILLA EP162025 10/07/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 96 92 89 82 69 55 42 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 95 96 92 89 82 69 55 42 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 95 97 96 90 83 68 54 42 32 24 18 20 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 25 21 14 13 14 6 13 17 23 34 49 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -3 0 0 -3 1 7 6 9 3 0 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 76 89 105 106 113 137 179 222 217 216 228 234 236 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.4 27.8 27.1 26.1 24.9 24.2 24.0 22.5 21.0 29.3 29.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 148 141 134 124 111 103 101 86 70 157 158 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.7 -51.1 -51.3 -51.0 -50.9 -50.9 -50.8 -51.0 -50.9 -50.7 -50.8 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 2 3 2 1 1 1 1 3 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 71 68 66 63 56 53 52 52 51 44 40 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 33 34 32 34 31 28 24 21 16 11 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 53 69 77 80 86 82 71 73 64 62 46 65 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 49 42 32 30 12 20 0 13 19 28 46 24 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -4 -1 0 0 4 9 6 -6 -10 -12 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 362 332 322 321 337 331 320 224 137 31 -5 63 -74 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.2 20.6 21.2 21.7 22.7 24.0 25.4 26.4 27.6 29.1 30.5 31.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.5 111.2 111.9 112.5 113.1 114.4 115.2 115.5 115.5 115.2 114.6 113.7 112.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 8 7 6 6 7 8 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 14 10 7 5 2 2 1 1 1 1 25 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 481 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. -1. -2. -9. -20. -30. -40. -50. -59. -63. -65. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -8. -8. -8. -4. -0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. -2. -4. -9. -14. -24. -31. -37. -36. -33. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. -3. -6. -13. -26. -40. -53. -70. -84. -97. -96. -92. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 19.7 110.5 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162025 PRISCILLA 10/07/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.16 1.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 4.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.39 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 324.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.54 -3.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.32 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.07 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.4 58.2 to 0.0 0.98 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.6 0.58 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.6% 14.6% 12.9% 10.6% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.3% 4.9% 4.3% 3.5% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 3.1% 2.4% 2.1% 1.7% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162025 PRISCILLA 10/07/25 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##