* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * PRISCILLA EP162025 10/08/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 91 88 81 75 63 48 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 95 91 88 81 75 63 48 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 95 93 88 81 73 59 47 36 27 19 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 19 12 10 12 4 9 14 20 29 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 0 -1 -4 2 3 8 9 8 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 90 102 100 108 127 172 202 213 223 233 233 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.4 27.7 26.9 26.3 25.2 24.5 24.0 22.7 20.5 29.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 148 141 132 126 114 106 101 88 65 155 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -51.1 -51.2 -51.0 -50.7 -51.0 -50.7 -51.0 -50.8 -50.8 -50.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 2 2 1 2 0 1 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 66 65 61 58 53 48 51 54 51 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 34 31 34 29 29 26 22 18 13 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 60 78 78 80 80 65 65 44 51 23 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 37 44 27 7 -8 5 21 0 21 63 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -2 0 0 3 5 10 1 -3 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 316 297 305 319 312 295 260 152 39 32 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.3 20.8 21.4 22.0 22.5 23.7 25.0 26.2 27.5 28.8 30.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.2 111.9 112.5 113.2 113.8 114.8 115.4 115.5 115.2 114.8 114.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 8 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 10 7 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 468 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -4. -12. -23. -34. -45. -56. -62. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -4. -5. -6. -3. -0. 3. 5. 7. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. 0. -3. -4. -6. -12. -20. -30. -37. -40. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -14. -20. -32. -47. -63. -80. -95. -98. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 20.3 111.2 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162025 PRISCILLA 10/08/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.12 0.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.51 2.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 383.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.47 -2.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.27 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.04 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.9 58.2 to 0.0 0.93 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.6 0.62 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.0% 11.3% 10.7% 8.7% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 3.8% 3.6% 2.9% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.6% 1.9% 1.8% 1.4% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162025 PRISCILLA 10/08/25 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##