* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * PRISCILLA EP162025 10/08/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 61 55 51 47 37 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 61 55 51 47 37 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 61 53 48 43 35 28 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 10 11 11 6 15 21 26 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -5 -3 1 2 8 12 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 109 107 111 123 150 196 209 219 230 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 27.3 26.7 26.1 25.6 24.7 24.3 23.2 21.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 136 130 124 118 108 104 92 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.1 -50.8 -51.0 -51.0 -50.8 -51.3 -51.1 -51.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 1 2 0 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 60 58 57 55 52 53 59 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 31 27 27 27 25 21 17 14 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 68 77 77 81 66 74 49 58 90 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 30 31 14 9 8 1 18 57 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -2 1 7 10 18 20 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 301 320 320 298 287 269 151 64 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.1 21.6 22.1 22.8 23.4 24.7 26.0 27.2 28.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.2 112.8 113.4 114.0 114.5 115.1 115.2 115.2 114.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 6 4 2 2 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -8. -16. -24. -33. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -6. -9. -10. -10. -8. -5. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -13. -21. -30. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -9. -15. -19. -23. -33. -45. -56. -70. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 21.1 112.2 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162025 PRISCILLA 10/08/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.26 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.00 0.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.64 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 342.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.52 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.25 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.02 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.9 58.2 to 0.0 0.90 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.6 0.55 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162025 PRISCILLA 10/08/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##