* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * PRISCILLA EP162025 10/08/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 53 48 43 39 28 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 53 48 43 39 28 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 51 45 39 35 28 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 10 8 5 7 14 20 28 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -5 -2 1 3 7 6 8 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 113 119 142 177 197 208 210 229 232 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 26.5 25.9 25.4 24.8 24.1 24.0 23.1 21.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 128 121 116 110 102 100 91 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -50.9 -51.0 -51.1 -51.1 -51.1 -51.4 -51.3 -51.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 57 57 55 52 51 53 56 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 25 24 22 17 14 11 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 72 77 81 69 58 67 49 64 112 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 27 17 18 0 15 -2 23 47 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -1 1 6 9 10 17 17 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 306 303 296 282 286 211 122 49 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.7 22.3 22.8 23.4 23.9 25.4 26.4 27.3 28.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.7 113.4 114.0 114.4 114.8 115.2 115.3 115.1 114.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -3. -8. -15. -22. -29. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -6. -9. -10. -10. -8. -6. -4. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -12. -20. -28. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -12. -17. -21. -32. -43. -54. -65. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 21.7 112.7 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162025 PRISCILLA 10/08/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.27 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.00 0.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.65 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 307.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.56 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.24 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.00 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.7 58.2 to 0.0 0.75 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.6 0.41 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162025 PRISCILLA 10/08/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##