* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * PRISCILLA EP162025 10/09/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 50 46 42 37 26 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 50 46 42 37 26 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 49 44 40 36 28 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 7 5 8 12 17 21 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 1 2 4 7 7 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 106 139 182 199 190 212 209 231 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.5 26.0 25.4 24.8 24.5 24.1 23.9 23.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 128 122 116 110 106 101 99 90 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.0 -51.2 -51.2 -51.0 -51.5 -51.4 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 1 1 2 0 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 57 54 52 52 52 52 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 22 22 20 19 14 10 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 75 83 64 55 68 49 56 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 13 12 10 12 13 6 43 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 1 5 9 7 13 2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 296 283 279 266 259 161 85 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.3 22.8 23.4 24.1 24.7 25.9 26.7 27.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.3 113.9 114.4 114.7 114.9 115.2 115.1 114.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 6 5 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 508 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -4. -9. -15. -22. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -8. -14. -23. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -13. -18. -29. -39. -50. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 22.3 113.3 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162025 PRISCILLA 10/09/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.27 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.60 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 290.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.58 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.22 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.3 58.2 to 0.0 0.72 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -2.6 0.45 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 13.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.1% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162025 PRISCILLA 10/09/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##