* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * RAYMOND EP172025 10/11/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 41 38 36 32 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 43 41 38 32 33 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 42 39 36 33 29 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 16 13 12 10 4 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 13 10 4 5 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 87 80 54 39 53 220 217 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 27.6 27.8 29.4 29.5 30.8 31.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 142 143 159 160 172 173 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.7 -51.9 -51.9 -51.8 -52.1 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 4 3 5 5 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 73 70 66 63 57 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 11 9 7 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 68 66 56 34 15 43 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 36 14 14 12 31 62 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -7 -10 -11 -9 -6 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 175 273 152 28 -5 53 -61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.7 21.7 22.7 23.7 26.0 28.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.2 108.3 109.4 110.0 110.5 110.8 110.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 13 11 11 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 38 31 24 26 21 28 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 17 CX,CY: -13/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 406 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -7. -9. -13. -16. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 19.7 107.2 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172025 RAYMOND 10/11/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.64 4.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.10 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 114.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -4.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.27 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 2.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.24 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.9 2.2 to -2.6 0.84 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 12.2% 10.1% 7.7% 5.7% 15.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 4.3% 3.4% 2.6% 1.9% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.7% 2.1% 1.7% 1.3% 0.9% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172025 RAYMOND 10/11/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##