* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP902025 08/03/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 35 42 49 64 76 81 79 72 64 56 50 43 38 34 30 V (KT) LAND 25 29 35 42 49 64 76 81 79 72 64 56 50 43 38 34 30 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 28 31 34 42 53 61 63 58 50 43 38 33 29 26 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 10 5 6 7 7 7 11 13 11 8 11 12 13 16 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 0 -2 -5 -6 -1 3 2 1 0 2 1 2 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 72 62 53 74 78 89 116 158 179 157 170 185 193 211 218 225 241 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 27.6 27.4 27.4 27.9 27.3 26.7 26.0 25.4 25.1 24.3 23.9 23.8 24.2 24.9 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 141 138 138 144 138 132 125 119 116 108 104 102 106 114 123 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -54.0 -53.8 -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 5 700-500 MB RH 63 64 62 64 66 72 74 70 62 57 53 52 51 48 43 39 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 12 13 14 16 20 22 24 24 22 20 17 16 14 13 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 18 19 26 24 32 57 76 85 100 101 89 81 78 59 38 19 3 200 MB DIV 76 70 55 63 59 6 -15 40 71 10 -4 -1 0 -24 6 -14 -18 700-850 TADV -3 -1 -2 -3 -3 -2 -4 -5 -2 -1 -7 -7 0 5 7 5 2 LAND (KM) 1304 1380 1429 1464 1507 1577 1612 1663 1781 1955 2181 1881 1500 1172 890 592 336 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 113.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 12 10 10 11 12 14 15 15 15 16 16 14 14 16 15 HEAT CONTENT 31 29 30 30 29 26 17 9 4 2 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 39.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 10. 17. 24. 29. 32. 33. 33. 32. 30. 27. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 8. 11. 16. 18. 16. 12. 8. 5. 3. 2. 1. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 4. 0. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 17. 24. 39. 51. 56. 54. 47. 39. 31. 25. 18. 13. 9. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.4 113.9 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP902025 INVEST 08/03/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.73 7.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.66 4.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 103.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 -5.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.48 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.26 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.6 0.44 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 22.5% 17.6% 0.0% 0.0% 21.5% 20.1% 0.0% Logistic: 5.5% 42.5% 20.8% 15.3% 5.5% 19.9% 16.3% 18.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.6% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 22.2% 12.9% 5.2% 1.8% 13.9% 12.3% 6.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 20.0% 10.0% 3.0% 1.0% 14.0% 35.0% 22.0% SDCON: 1.4% 21.1% 11.4% 4.1% 1.4% 13.9% 23.6% 14.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902025 INVEST 08/03/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##