* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP902025 08/04/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 33 38 43 51 56 59 57 55 49 45 41 39 37 37 38 V (KT) LAND 25 28 33 38 43 51 56 59 57 55 49 45 41 39 37 37 38 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 28 30 32 36 38 37 35 31 28 26 24 21 19 18 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 4 5 5 3 5 7 2 4 6 7 8 7 5 8 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -4 -4 -3 0 3 1 2 -2 -3 0 -1 3 1 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 46 66 65 31 62 124 153 189 144 182 142 136 158 155 185 234 258 SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.9 27.5 26.6 26.2 25.6 25.3 24.0 23.5 23.7 24.0 24.2 25.2 25.8 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 146 144 142 144 140 131 127 121 118 105 99 101 104 106 116 123 127 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.7 -53.5 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -53.8 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -54.0 -54.1 -54.4 -54.4 -54.3 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 4 5 6 700-500 MB RH 66 68 71 70 74 74 72 66 60 56 50 49 46 47 43 42 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 15 18 19 19 19 19 18 17 14 13 12 12 11 11 11 850 MB ENV VOR 27 36 44 54 64 66 78 68 67 67 65 56 39 23 0 -12 -31 200 MB DIV 62 57 25 9 1 -28 8 6 -8 0 -10 6 -6 -2 -3 -5 -4 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -2 -3 -1 0 0 3 3 2 -2 -1 0 4 3 1 0 LAND (KM) 1350 1375 1409 1438 1476 1529 1623 1758 1971 2141 1792 1485 1203 951 722 546 410 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 116.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 12 13 14 15 15 15 15 13 13 13 13 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 30 30 29 27 22 14 4 3 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 9. 15. 21. 25. 27. 27. 26. 24. 22. 20. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 1. -1. -2. -1. -3. -3. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 13. 18. 26. 31. 34. 32. 30. 24. 20. 16. 14. 12. 12. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.4 116.4 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP902025 INVEST 08/04/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.74 7.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 34.9 to 7.7 0.85 5.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 76.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 -5.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.31 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.24 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.2 to -2.6 0.76 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 22.1% 17.4% 0.0% 0.0% 19.8% 18.6% 0.0% Logistic: 3.0% 20.9% 9.0% 4.7% 1.9% 5.0% 3.0% 8.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 14.9% 8.9% 1.6% 0.6% 8.3% 7.2% 2.8% DTOPS: 1.0% 12.0% 6.0% 2.0% 1.0% 9.0% 18.0% 13.0% SDCON: 1.0% 13.4% 7.4% 1.8% 0.8% 8.6% 12.6% 7.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902025 INVEST 08/04/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##