* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP902025 08/04/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 35 38 43 46 48 46 44 40 38 34 34 34 36 36 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 35 38 43 46 48 46 44 40 38 34 34 34 36 36 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 30 32 32 30 27 24 22 20 19 18 17 17 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 1 1 2 2 5 8 6 9 8 10 12 10 14 5 13 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -1 -2 0 2 0 1 0 -1 -3 -2 2 -3 -1 -6 -4 SHEAR DIR 66 113 276 21 83 207 220 227 230 248 187 181 153 146 212 235 234 SST (C) 27.9 27.7 27.9 27.4 26.9 26.1 25.4 24.1 25.1 24.1 23.1 23.7 24.2 25.0 25.7 26.0 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 144 142 144 139 134 126 118 105 116 106 95 101 106 115 122 123 124 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.7 -53.4 -53.0 -53.1 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -53.9 -54.1 -54.4 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 70 72 70 72 72 71 68 64 59 55 50 46 44 43 39 38 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 16 18 19 20 21 19 19 17 16 15 14 13 14 13 15 15 850 MB ENV VOR 38 46 54 66 72 68 68 64 60 58 61 50 30 8 -4 -26 -36 200 MB DIV 63 44 17 10 -5 -21 17 -6 3 -8 2 -20 -2 -1 1 -19 -8 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -3 -3 -1 1 3 5 7 1 1 -2 0 3 3 5 0 LAND (KM) 1320 1350 1390 1439 1479 1563 1673 1828 2015 2031 1674 1349 1086 832 625 518 479 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 117.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 11 12 13 13 13 13 14 16 16 14 14 14 13 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 30 28 24 18 15 6 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 524 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 19. 22. 24. 24. 23. 20. 18. 17. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 12. 11. 11. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 13. 18. 21. 23. 21. 19. 15. 13. 9. 9. 9. 11. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.4 117.5 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP902025 INVEST 08/04/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.72 6.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.86 5.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 79.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 -5.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.29 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.41 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.19 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -2.6 0.68 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.0% 14.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.7% 15.9% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 9.7% 4.5% 1.6% 0.3% 1.9% 0.8% 2.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 9.0% 6.4% 0.5% 0.1% 6.2% 5.6% 0.8% DTOPS: 1.0% 9.0% 5.0% 1.0% 1.0% 5.0% 7.0% 3.0% SDCON: 0.8% 9.0% 5.7% 0.7% 0.5% 5.6% 6.3% 1.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902025 INVEST 08/04/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##