* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP922025 08/24/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 36 42 48 52 52 48 42 35 29 20 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 36 42 48 52 52 48 42 35 29 20 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 35 36 39 38 35 29 23 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 12 11 7 5 7 8 12 30 34 37 38 39 37 34 36 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 2 1 3 3 1 -1 -2 -2 0 -6 -4 -3 0 -8 SHEAR DIR 51 44 14 5 323 333 287 231 235 237 246 246 248 233 230 210 213 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.1 28.2 26.8 24.3 23.4 21.6 21.2 20.8 20.2 19.0 20.0 20.9 21.6 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 166 166 165 157 147 133 107 97 78 73 68 61 59 58 67 75 93 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.9 -51.9 -52.0 -51.7 -51.3 -51.4 -51.5 -52.0 -52.1 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 5 700-500 MB RH 77 75 73 73 71 65 62 56 49 45 43 38 41 38 37 34 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 11 11 12 14 17 16 15 14 12 10 7 6 3 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 15 12 10 18 26 29 12 17 7 10 23 10 -16 -20 -9 -9 -9 200 MB DIV 60 64 46 70 90 54 34 8 -1 -31 1 -20 -16 -4 0 -12 25 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -6 -7 -4 -3 3 0 5 4 2 -6 -7 -6 -5 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 614 673 683 638 607 610 618 592 571 569 502 392 282 184 115 67 -29 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.2 16.9 17.6 18.4 20.1 21.9 23.7 25.6 27.3 28.8 30.1 31.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.3 110.4 111.3 112.3 113.3 115.2 117.3 118.9 120.2 120.8 120.9 120.4 119.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 12 12 13 13 12 10 8 7 6 5 4 3 4 7 HEAT CONTENT 29 26 23 17 13 5 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 513 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 5. 10. 12. 11. 8. 4. -2. -8. -14. -19. -22. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11. 13. 13. 8. -0. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 6. 7. 7. 4. 2. -1. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 6. 12. 18. 22. 22. 18. 12. 5. -1. -10. -21. -33. -44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.7 109.3 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP922025 INVEST 08/24/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.84 7.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.51 3.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 64.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 -5.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.49 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.21 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.18 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.3 58.2 to 0.0 0.99 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.4 2.2 to -2.6 0.96 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.7% 16.9% 15.3% 12.6% 0.0% 18.8% 16.4% 8.1% Logistic: 0.3% 1.9% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.9% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 6.3% 5.3% 4.3% 0.0% 6.6% 5.6% 2.7% DTOPS: 1.0% 6.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 4.0% 5.0% 1.0% SDCON: 2.0% 6.1% 4.1% 2.6% 0.5% 5.3% 5.3% 1.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922025 INVEST 08/24/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##