* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942025 06/14/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 21 22 23 27 32 40 44 47 52 55 59 60 59 60 63 V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 22 23 27 32 40 44 47 52 55 43 33 34 30 28 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 21 21 22 22 24 26 29 33 30 28 32 29 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 11 9 9 12 12 9 11 12 10 11 8 7 9 12 6 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 3 10 11 5 4 -1 -4 -4 -3 -5 -5 -5 -2 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 7 7 15 17 36 61 81 93 103 95 73 71 38 348 18 2 32 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.3 29.0 28.6 28.3 28.4 28.7 29.3 29.6 30.0 29.7 30.1 30.4 30.2 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 158 154 151 146 143 144 148 154 159 163 161 165 169 167 163 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.6 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 -53.6 -52.8 -53.6 -52.8 -53.3 -52.4 -53.0 -52.1 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 5 6 4 5 4 5 4 5 4 6 5 6 5 700-500 MB RH 82 81 77 74 74 75 76 81 83 85 84 85 85 85 85 85 87 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 74 77 86 88 84 91 91 83 92 85 80 63 57 59 54 48 48 200 MB DIV 106 105 103 81 61 43 43 87 63 51 40 45 97 84 92 93 62 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 -4 LAND (KM) 84 116 149 181 207 220 214 203 191 149 104 27 -49 -42 13 -75 -151 LAT (DEG N) 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.3 10.4 10.7 11.0 11.2 11.5 11.9 12.5 13.4 14.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 86.6 86.9 87.2 87.5 87.8 88.2 88.4 88.5 88.7 88.9 89.4 90.0 91.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 3 2 5 6 7 8 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 20 19 18 17 16 16 16 17 19 22 27 34 35 34 32 24 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -2. -2. -1. 5. 13. 20. 25. 30. 34. 37. 40. 42. 44. 46. 50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 10. 9. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 20. 24. 27. 32. 35. 39. 40. 39. 40. 43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.1 86.6 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP942025 INVEST 06/14/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.89 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.5 34.9 to 8.5 0.28 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 35.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.61 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.15 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.69 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.2% 34.9% 18.9% 12.0% 1.0% 20.4% 18.8% 50.3% Bayesian: 0.4% 4.1% 1.9% 0.6% 0.0% 0.9% 2.0% 2.0% Consensus: 1.5% 13.0% 6.9% 4.2% 0.3% 7.1% 6.9% 17.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942025 INVEST 06/14/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##