* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942025 06/14/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 27 28 29 31 37 42 47 51 55 62 67 67 68 66 69 V (KT) LAND 25 27 27 28 29 31 37 42 47 51 55 62 67 67 53 35 29 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 28 29 28 28 29 31 34 39 46 54 61 52 34 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 11 17 15 10 9 7 10 6 4 4 5 11 13 14 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 11 18 14 12 7 0 -1 -5 -5 -5 2 1 1 2 0 2 SHEAR DIR 22 21 27 31 35 58 75 102 94 105 86 35 54 20 63 72 72 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.6 28.3 28.7 29.5 29.8 29.0 29.8 29.7 29.8 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 153 153 153 152 148 147 144 149 158 163 155 163 162 164 159 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -52.9 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 6 5 5 4 5 4 6 4 6 5 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 79 75 75 74 76 78 80 85 84 87 83 85 81 84 83 87 85 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 9 9 10 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 62 66 72 75 79 90 85 95 88 83 67 51 58 60 41 59 56 200 MB DIV 95 82 65 65 58 22 47 44 40 56 51 70 75 81 74 90 61 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 1 -2 -2 0 LAND (KM) 208 229 248 258 260 262 255 241 221 193 137 72 21 55 -67 -131 -171 LAT (DEG N) 9.0 9.1 9.1 9.3 9.5 9.8 10.3 10.5 11.0 11.5 12.3 13.3 14.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 87.3 87.6 87.8 88.0 88.1 88.2 88.3 88.3 88.5 88.9 89.8 91.0 92.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 2 3 4 7 9 9 10 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 19 18 17 16 16 15 15 15 16 19 25 32 35 35 26 19 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 7. 14. 20. 25. 29. 33. 37. 40. 41. 42. 43. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 11. 9. 8. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. -1. 0. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 12. 17. 22. 26. 30. 37. 42. 42. 43. 41. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.0 87.3 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP942025 INVEST 06/14/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.82 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 35.9 34.9 to 8.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 40.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.52 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.14 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.61 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.0% 28.7% 11.9% 7.8% 0.2% 16.1% 12.1% 49.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 2.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% 1.2% 0.9% Consensus: 1.7% 15.7% 4.2% 2.6% 0.1% 5.6% 4.4% 16.6% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% SDCON: 1.3% 8.8% 2.6% 1.3% 0% 2.8% 2.7% 8.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942025 INVEST 06/14/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##