* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942025 06/15/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 25 27 33 37 44 48 53 58 57 57 57 58 N/A V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 25 27 33 37 44 48 53 42 32 28 27 27 N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 24 23 23 24 25 27 30 28 27 27 27 27 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 10 14 13 13 9 5 5 7 9 8 4 7 7 7 7 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 15 12 8 4 5 2 0 -6 -7 -8 -3 -2 -1 -5 -3 N/A SHEAR DIR 35 36 18 17 23 23 133 205 193 191 181 124 90 112 123 77 N/A SST (C) 29.2 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.8 29.4 30.0 29.6 29.0 29.5 30.1 29.8 29.2 29.7 29.4 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 149 147 145 146 150 156 163 159 154 160 166 163 157 162 158 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -53.5 -53.2 -53.6 -52.9 -53.3 -52.3 -52.8 -51.8 -52.4 -51.7 -52.5 N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 7 6 5 6 4 5 4 7 5 8 6 6 4 N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 73 74 76 78 77 82 84 87 86 85 82 80 84 81 82 N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 9 9 11 12 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 76 81 85 88 84 86 78 77 79 90 85 73 85 88 72 73 N/A 200 MB DIV 90 76 84 90 88 41 63 71 76 90 135 125 153 109 102 4 N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 -4 -6 -2 0 -1 N/A LAND (KM) 181 231 244 243 238 192 148 90 41 14 18 -73 -175 -232 -192 -183 N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.4 10.6 10.9 11.1 11.6 12.2 12.9 13.6 14.5 15.7 16.9 17.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x N/A LONG(DEG W) 87.5 88.1 88.4 88.7 88.9 89.3 89.8 90.3 91.2 92.4 93.8 95.4 97.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 4 3 3 4 4 5 6 9 9 10 10 10 9 7 N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 15 15 15 16 19 24 30 34 35 34 14 11 10 11 11 N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 494 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 20. 25. 29. 33. 36. 38. 40. 41. 42. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 3. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. -0. -1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -0. -0. 2. 8. 12. 19. 23. 28. 33. 32. 32. 32. 33. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.2 87.5 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP942025 INVEST 06/15/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.78 5.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.7 34.9 to 8.5 0.12 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 44.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -5.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.58 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.12 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.47 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.8% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% 13.5% 14.6% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 10.7% 4.5% 2.2% 0.1% 6.3% 6.4% 24.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 1.8% 5.4% Consensus: 0.4% 8.7% 4.9% 0.8% 0.0% 6.6% 7.6% 9.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: .2% 4.8% 2.9% .4% 0% 3.3% 3.8% 5.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942025 INVEST 06/15/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##