* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942025 06/15/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 24 23 27 32 39 46 51 56 60 59 60 61 62 N/A V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 24 23 27 32 39 46 41 33 29 28 27 27 27 N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 23 23 23 24 27 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 16 15 14 13 6 6 5 4 4 6 4 6 5 2 6 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 16 12 10 6 4 3 2 -3 -5 -4 -6 0 -1 1 1 -1 N/A SHEAR DIR 38 28 26 32 34 75 158 132 189 192 247 160 44 128 112 41 N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.5 28.8 29.5 30.0 29.3 29.1 30.2 29.6 29.7 29.4 29.2 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 152 151 150 146 149 158 164 158 156 168 162 163 159 156 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -52.9 -52.7 -52.3 -52.4 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 5 5 4 5 4 6 5 7 7 6 5 6 N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 75 77 79 78 81 84 86 87 84 85 79 82 83 83 82 N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 8 7 8 8 8 9 10 11 12 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 75 81 83 89 95 87 82 73 78 72 64 65 70 72 73 56 N/A 200 MB DIV 84 87 84 67 46 57 49 71 105 95 121 142 135 113 53 2 N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 3 -3 -9 0 0 -1 N/A LAND (KM) 243 288 305 303 299 248 186 129 70 -30 -38 -99 -125 -253 -266 -232 N/A LAT (DEG N) 9.4 9.6 9.8 10.1 10.3 11.0 11.6 12.3 13.1 14.4 15.9 17.3 18.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x N/A LONG(DEG W) 87.9 88.4 88.6 88.7 88.8 88.9 89.1 89.5 90.3 91.6 93.2 94.9 97.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 3 3 3 4 3 5 7 10 11 12 12 11 9 8 N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 15 14 14 14 15 19 25 32 35 32 7 8 2 14 9 N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 512 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 7. 14. 21. 26. 31. 34. 37. 39. 41. 42. 43. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. -0. -1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -2. 2. 7. 14. 21. 26. 31. 35. 34. 35. 36. 37. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.4 87.9 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP942025 INVEST 06/15/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.81 5.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.1 34.9 to 8.5 0.07 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 40.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -4.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.52 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.12 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.41 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.3% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 12.7% 13.7% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 7.4% 2.7% 1.3% 0.1% 4.4% 5.5% 26.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.6% 2.3% Consensus: 0.2% 6.7% 3.8% 0.4% 0.0% 5.7% 6.6% 9.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% SDCON: .1% 3.8% 1.9% .2% 0% 2.8% 3.8% 6.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942025 INVEST 06/15/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##