* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942025 06/15/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 27 29 33 37 46 53 57 62 63 63 61 61 60 62 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 27 29 33 37 46 53 57 44 32 29 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 26 27 29 32 35 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 13 11 9 7 4 4 5 5 7 5 6 5 5 12 13 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 10 7 7 4 2 0 -5 -7 -7 -3 -5 -2 -3 0 -5 -1 SHEAR DIR 25 38 38 41 33 154 180 163 167 188 105 47 48 46 25 40 56 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.8 29.5 29.8 29.5 28.9 29.6 30.2 29.9 29.7 29.5 29.6 29.4 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 146 147 150 157 161 158 153 160 167 163 162 159 160 157 155 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -52.7 -53.2 -52.3 -52.8 -52.0 -52.6 -51.8 -52.6 -52.2 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 6 5 5 6 4 6 4 7 5 8 6 6 4 6 4 700-500 MB RH 75 77 78 77 79 83 85 86 85 86 83 80 83 81 82 79 76 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 8 9 9 8 10 10 11 12 10 8 5 6 4 5 850 MB ENV VOR 87 88 84 90 86 78 77 87 92 90 80 81 81 70 77 78 72 200 MB DIV 79 92 92 63 57 70 86 90 74 113 131 136 56 92 51 48 30 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 -2 -4 -4 -4 -6 -3 -1 LAND (KM) 257 265 240 238 219 169 121 55 36 25 -53 -179 -161 -121 -70 -69 -59 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.8 11.1 11.2 11.5 12.1 12.8 13.5 14.5 15.7 16.8 17.5 18.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 88.4 88.9 89.1 89.4 89.7 90.2 90.8 91.5 92.7 93.9 95.2 96.8 98.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 3 4 4 4 5 6 8 9 9 8 9 9 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 15 15 16 16 18 23 29 33 35 34 18 13 23 19 18 14 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 20. 25. 29. 32. 34. 37. 39. 40. 42. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -1. -4. -3. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. -0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 12. 21. 28. 32. 37. 38. 38. 36. 36. 35. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.4 88.4 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP942025 INVEST 06/15/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.77 5.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.0 34.9 to 8.5 0.22 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 37.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -5.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.54 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.13 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.60 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.4% 10.6% 0.0% 0.0% 15.9% 17.5% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 20.1% 9.0% 5.0% 0.3% 18.4% 20.5% 43.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 3.7% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 1.6% 5.2% 6.6% Consensus: 0.5% 13.1% 6.9% 1.8% 0.1% 12.0% 14.4% 16.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 6.0% SDCON: .2% 8.0% 3.9% 1.4% 0% 6.5% 7.7% 11.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942025 INVEST 06/15/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##