* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942025 06/15/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 28 31 37 47 53 61 66 62 65 65 65 67 71 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 28 31 37 47 41 33 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 26 28 30 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 13 8 6 9 8 5 5 4 5 7 2 2 5 6 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 9 7 6 1 -1 -3 -7 -4 -7 0 0 6 0 0 -4 -5 SHEAR DIR 40 45 40 42 76 155 140 165 205 215 140 35 158 53 356 6 329 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.4 30.3 30.4 30.5 30.5 30.1 29.4 29.7 29.6 29.2 29.2 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 153 152 153 156 166 168 170 171 167 159 163 161 156 155 156 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.9 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.2 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.5 -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -51.9 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 5 4 5 4 6 5 8 7 7 5 6 5 7 700-500 MB RH 79 80 81 81 82 85 85 86 84 84 79 81 81 81 78 77 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 8 9 9 9 9 10 11 12 14 15 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 87 95 107 96 82 88 83 84 72 63 73 89 79 77 60 49 34 200 MB DIV 89 78 69 71 63 78 80 87 75 123 158 130 81 60 15 50 23 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 -5 -14 1 0 -2 0 0 LAND (KM) 275 304 296 277 258 197 123 72 -31 -27 -116 -164 -271 -280 -206 -175 -171 LAT (DEG N) 9.7 9.9 10.2 10.5 10.8 11.5 12.4 13.2 14.6 16.0 17.4 18.4 19.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 88.3 88.6 88.7 88.7 88.8 89.1 89.6 90.6 91.9 93.5 95.3 97.5 99.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 3 4 4 6 8 10 11 11 12 12 10 8 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 15 14 14 14 15 18 26 32 35 31 8 8 15 13 12 9 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 6. 14. 21. 27. 30. 34. 37. 39. 41. 42. 44. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 6. 7. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. -0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 12. 22. 28. 36. 41. 37. 40. 40. 40. 42. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.7 88.3 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP942025 INVEST 06/15/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.82 5.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.1 34.9 to 8.5 0.29 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 17.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 -5.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.53 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.11 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.40 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.6% 10.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.7% 17.6% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 6.7% 2.2% 1.0% 0.1% 4.5% 11.9% 32.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 4.8% Consensus: 0.1% 7.3% 4.3% 0.3% 0.0% 7.1% 9.9% 12.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 13.0% SDCON: 0% 4.6% 2.6% .1% 0% 3.5% 5.4% 12.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942025 INVEST 06/15/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##