* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942025 06/16/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 30 35 43 50 57 58 54 55 56 54 54 56 57 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 30 35 43 40 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 31 32 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 27 30 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 12 10 7 9 5 5 4 9 2 1 4 2 10 14 13 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 8 3 3 0 0 -5 -3 -7 1 0 1 -2 -1 -6 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 52 28 31 54 111 135 146 210 185 164 32 176 122 42 61 84 70 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.9 29.0 29.8 30.3 30.4 30.5 30.0 29.2 30.0 29.6 29.2 29.1 28.1 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 153 151 152 161 167 169 171 166 158 166 160 156 155 144 119 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -52.8 -53.2 -52.5 -53.0 -52.1 -52.5 -51.8 -52.1 -51.6 -52.1 -51.8 -52.1 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 6 5 4 5 4 7 6 8 5 6 4 5 3 4 700-500 MB RH 80 81 82 82 83 85 87 86 84 83 82 84 81 80 77 72 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 10 11 13 14 15 13 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 88 97 87 76 72 79 76 81 73 71 87 87 67 60 71 73 49 200 MB DIV 80 71 83 100 99 89 93 96 118 162 137 100 58 -27 -4 -5 -9 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 -5 -5 0 0 -2 -7 -2 -7 LAND (KM) 338 354 334 297 260 176 80 -23 -45 -85 -113 -270 -312 -176 -20 83 157 LAT (DEG N) 9.8 10.0 10.3 10.7 11.1 12.0 13.2 14.5 16.2 17.7 19.0 20.1 20.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 88.9 89.2 89.4 89.6 89.7 90.1 90.8 91.9 93.5 95.2 97.3 99.7 101.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 4 4 4 6 7 10 11 12 12 12 9 8 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 14 13 13 14 15 22 32 35 29 12 7 2 12 12 15 16 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 7. 14. 21. 26. 30. 33. 35. 38. 39. 40. 42. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 6. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. -0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -11. -9. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 18. 25. 32. 33. 29. 30. 31. 29. 29. 31. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.8 88.9 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP942025 INVEST 06/16/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.82 6.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.4 34.9 to 8.5 0.40 2.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 19.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 -6.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.59 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.11 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.26 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.2% 14.0% 0.0% 0.0% 20.6% 20.5% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 7.9% 2.8% 1.5% 0.1% 8.4% 4.9% 12.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.2% 9.5% 5.6% 0.5% 0.0% 9.7% 8.5% 4.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 13.0% SDCON: .1% 6.2% 3.3% .2% 0% 5.3% 5.2% 8.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942025 INVEST 06/16/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##