* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942025 06/16/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 29 35 43 52 57 58 55 56 57 54 54 57 60 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 29 35 43 45 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 27 31 35 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 11 12 11 6 4 8 5 2 5 6 5 11 11 8 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 2 1 0 0 -3 -3 -7 -5 0 -2 0 -2 -6 -1 0 3 SHEAR DIR 37 37 72 84 99 95 140 173 242 351 320 239 331 44 84 98 70 SST (C) 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.7 29.3 29.9 30.4 30.5 30.0 29.1 30.1 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.1 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 154 151 150 149 149 156 163 169 171 166 157 166 160 158 155 153 152 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.4 -52.4 -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 5 5 4 5 4 6 5 7 6 7 5 7 5 7 4 700-500 MB RH 81 83 82 84 85 85 86 85 85 84 85 83 81 78 76 71 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 10 10 12 13 15 15 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 92 81 66 67 77 77 73 79 58 68 68 55 70 62 103 83 85 200 MB DIV 72 72 58 76 88 76 101 119 134 134 127 81 33 10 10 13 0 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 -4 -4 4 0 -1 -2 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 445 453 426 383 341 250 140 -8 -49 -55 -69 -199 -349 -299 -196 -105 -14 LAT (DEG N) 9.4 9.5 9.8 10.2 10.6 11.5 12.7 14.4 16.1 17.9 19.4 20.6 21.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 89.9 90.4 90.6 90.6 90.6 90.7 91.1 92.0 93.3 95.0 97.0 99.2 101.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 4 4 4 6 8 10 12 12 12 11 7 5 5 4 6 HEAT CONTENT 14 14 14 14 15 19 28 35 30 13 8 1 13 9 11 13 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 27. 31. 34. 36. 37. 38. 39. 41. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 7. 4. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 2. -0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -11. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 18. 27. 32. 33. 30. 31. 32. 29. 29. 32. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.4 89.9 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP942025 INVEST 06/16/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.79 6.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.1 34.9 to 8.5 0.45 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 10.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 -6.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.52 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.11 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.19 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.0% 13.2% 0.0% 0.0% 19.3% 19.6% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 2.9% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 2.4% 4.3% 14.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.1% 7.4% 4.7% 0.1% 0.0% 7.2% 8.0% 4.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 16.0% SDCON: 0% 5.2% 2.8% 0% 0% 4.1% 5.0% 10.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942025 INVEST 06/16/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##